College Football coverage by Jerry Palm.
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Before getting to the picks, news broke last night that Baylor Athletic Director and CFP Committee Chairman Mark Rhoads is resigning from his job at Baylor. That also means his leave of absence from the CFP Committee will be permanent.
Utah AD Mark Harlan replaced Rhodes for the remainder of this season. He could be named a permanent replacement for Rhodes. He was on the committee for the 2023 season. If not him, then likely another person with Big 12 ties would be the replacement.
Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama all have their SEC Sabbatical games this week, so there will be fewer CFP impact matchups. That’s not to say that there are none.
all games Saturday, all times Eastern
That is not the given it sounds like. Oklahoma's two losses this season came at home to Ole Miss and in the neutral site game with Texas.
Missouri is one of the top rushing teams in the country at 241.7 yards per game. The Sooners boast one of the best run defenses allowing just 82.2 ypg. If the Tigers can run the ball, it is going to be a long day for the Sooners.
I think at some point, Missouri not having starting QB Beau Pribula will be an issue. The Tigers will need backup Matt Zollers to make some plays.
Pick: Oklahoma -6.5
That's a problem for another day. Louisville has been inconsistent, to be generous. Win at Miami one day, lose at home to Cal the next. In fact, all three of their losses have come at home.
That's bad news for SMU because the Mustangs host this one. If Louisville can quit turning the ball over, the Cardinals can get back to their winning ways.
Pick: Louisville +3
Even with that, this seems like a pretty big line, so I'll take the under figuring that the Notre Dame defense won't give up much and that their run game will chew clock.
Pick: Notre Dame Under 50.5
That is definitely true in USC's case. The Trojans would pick up a third loss and that would be one too many for USC. If there is a three-loss team in the CFP this season, it will likely come from the SEC.
A loss for the Ducks would only be their second, but it would leave them 0-2 against ranked teams with only a game at Washington remaining. More importantly, it would put Oregon no better than fourth among Big Ten teams in the CFP pecking order. There may not be room for four.
I like the Ducks at home in a close one.
Pick: USC +10
Temple has something at stake as well. The Owls are hunting a bowl berth, which would be their first since 2019. That won't be easy. After this, Temple finishes up at North Texas. It looks like the Owls may have to wait another year for that bowl berth.
Pick: Tulane -9.5
Georgia Tech is chasing a title as well. Four teams are currently tied with one loss and this is the only game left among those teams.
The ACC will be a one-bid league in the CFP unless Miami gets an at-large spot. The Hurricanes are the highest rated ACC team at 13.
Pick: Georgia Tech -2.5
BYU still has a chance of making the College Football Playoff as an at-large team but there is no margin for error. The Cougars only loss was 27-9 at Texas Tech, one for which the selection committee judged them harshly. To be an at-large team, BYU would have to be more competitive with the Red Raiders in the Big 12 title game.
Cincinnati is coming off two straight losses, including last week at home to Arizona. The Bearcats are still alive for a New Year's Day bowl game, but they need to finish 9-3 to get there.
Pick: BYU -2.5
I picked Illinois to make the CFP rankings each of the first three weeks and was finally right this week. Now, I am predicating a short stay.
The Illini beat Purdue on the road but lost both of their other conference road games and did so badly. Washington beat Illinois by 17 and Indiana crushed the Illini 63-10 in a game that wasn’t as close as the score would indicate.
The Badgers have been miserable this season, but things have picked up a bit since the school announced coach Luke Fickell would return next season. They beat Washington in the first game after that and got pounded by Indiana, but by less than half as much as the Illini.
Pick: Wisconsin +8.5, +269
This week’s College Football Playoff projections are SEC heavy, as they have been pretty much every week. There are five SEC teams in this week’s projection, including four seeded consecutively. The Big Ten has three teams, the ACC, Big 12 and American have one each. Notre Dame also has a spot.
No. 4 Alabama is still the projected conference champion despite a loss at home to 11th-ranked Oklahoma. Last season, the Sooners almost derailed the Crimson Tide’s CFP hopes with a blowout win at home. This was no blowout and everything Alabama wants to play for is still mostly in its control. The Crimson Tide may have to win a tiebreaker to get to the SEC Championship Game, but they would have a head-to-head result with Georgia and a strength of schedule advantage over Ole Miss.
Things get messier if Texas A&M loses and makes it into a tiebreaker also, but in that case, two teams would get selected for the title game.
Speaking of Texas A&M and messy, the Aggies spotted South Carolina a 30-3 halftime advantage, but came all the way back in the second half to win 31-30. That will keep Texas A&M atop the SEC standings for a couple more weeks. The Aggies, like half the league, is playing a non-conference game meant to be an opportunity to get starters some rest. Texas A&M, Alabama and Auburn are playing FCS schools, while Georgia is playing 1-9 Charlotte. LSU and South Carolina may have to work a little harder to beat Western Kentucky and Coastal Carolina respectively.
South Florida suffered from what I will now call the CFP jinx. For the second week in a row, the Group of Five team that the selection committee said was the highest ranked among them lost. The Bulls fell at Navy 41-38. The Tigers and USF, the league favorites just two weeks ago, will probably both miss out on the title game. Tulane is likely to get the committee’s burden this week, but James Madison could be in play for that as well.
We should have some wild conference races the next couple of weeks. The ACC and American each have four teams atop the league with just one conference loss, while the MAC and Mountain West have five teams tied for second, one game back of the conference leader.
I’ll have projected CFP rankings on Monday.
CFP Committee Chairman and Baylor Athletic Director Mark Rhodes has taken a leave of absence from both positions for personal reasons. There is some sort of internal investigation of Rhodes going on at Baylor, but the school said that the leave of absence was not due to "a Title IX report, NCAA rule violations or student welfare".
The College Football Playoff committee announced later in the day that current committee member and Arkansas AD Hunter Yuracek would assume the role of chairman for the remainder of the season. Also, former committee member and Utah AD Mark Harlan will join the committee for the remainder of the season. Harlan was on the committee in 2023.
all games Saturday, all times Eastern
I have been confused by the inclusion of the Panthers in the CFP rankings. They have played a soft schedule which, along with Virginia's, is the worst among the teams in the rankings. Pitt has only defeated two teams with winning records, NC State and Central Michigan, both at home. It's not a very impressive resume.
No matter now. Pitt will get a chance to justify all of it and more if the Panthers can take down Notre Dame on Saturday.
For the Irish, it's an opportunity for a second win against a ranked opponent, although it likely won't count as one by the end.
Pick: Notre Dame -12.5
South Florida has been the best team in the conference this season, but that doesn't mean much if the Bulls don't win the league. The trip to Annapolis marks the last time they will be favored by so few points.
After a 7-0 start, the Midshipmen had road games against some better opposition and lost two in a row by double digits. They are back home, but I don't expect a different result.
Pick: USF -10
Iowa has a well-earned reputation for enjoying a good rock fight, if there is such a thing, but this Hawkeyes team is different. They have played three games this season where both teams scored 20 points or fewer and lost them all.
Oh, sure. They still like to run the ball, but the offense is more dynamic this season and Iowa is better off when it is. The Hawkeyes' defense is still stout, but the offense can now keep up when it isn't.
USC is happy to rely on its offense as well, losing ony once when it scored at least 30 points. Problem is, Iowa has not allowed that many all season.
I still like USC to win at home, but it will be close.
Pick: Iowa +6.5
Alabama's College Football Playoff hopes last season could have ended at Memorial Stadium in Norman when they no-showed a 24-3 loss to the Sooners. The Tide better be more ready this time because Oklahoma is fighting for a spot in the CFP this time.
The Sooners will do so leaning heavily on their defense, which is seventh in the country in total defense and eighth in scoring defense. They are banged up though, with injures to DE Mason Thomas and LB Kobie McKinzie have their status for Saturday in doubt.
Pick: Alabama -6
This is a battle to remain in the hunt for a spot in the ACC title game. There are five ACC teams with one conference loss and these are two of them. Their overall records are very different though because Duke lost all three of its FBS non-conference games, including a 37-34 defeat at UConn last Saturday. The Blue Devils are the only major conference team within a game of first place in its league and still not bowl eligible.
Virginia may be without starting QB Chandler Morris, who left last week's loss at Wake Foerst with a concussion. Redshirt Freshman Daniel Kaelin is Morris' backup. He threw for 145 yards and rushed for 49 more in relief of Morris
Pick: Under 58.5
Texas QB Arch Manning took a while, but he seems to have found his footing for the Longhorns. Manning is 54-79 for 674 yards, six touchdowns and just one interception in the last two games at Mississippi State and against Vanderbilt. He's going to need another stellar performance to lead Texas to a win at Georgia on Saturday.
Both of these teams are chasing a shot at the SEC title, but this is Georgia's last chance to build its case. This is the Bulldogs' final conference game of the season. They still have non-conference games with Charlotte and at Georgia Tech.
QB Gunnar Stockton has had a good debut season as the full time starter. He's thrown for 2040 yards and 15 touchdowns with just two interceptions.
Pick: Over 49.5
The Bearcats had a much needed week off last week, which followed a 45-14 loss at Utah. The Utes are one of the top defenses in the league and harassed QB Brendan Sorsby into 11-33 passing for 221 yards with a touchdown and an interception.
Arizona comes to town with a pretty good defense as well, second only to Utah's in pass defense in the Big 12. On offense, they are led by QB Nick Fafita, who has thrown for 2200 yards and 22 touchdowns.
The Bearcats have been good at home and will need to be again if they are to avoid the upset. I don't like the matchup though.
Pick: Arizona +6, +190
This week's College Football Playoff rankings are out. Here are my thoughts on them. BYU took a beating and Miami's unique place.
It was a pretty chalky weekend, at least at the top of the College Football Playoff rankings. The only team to lose in the top 12 was No. 7 BYU, which fell at No. 8 Texas Tech, where the Cougars were a 10.5-point underdog. I thought that was kind of high, but Tech covered it easily in a 29-7 win.
This is the only game that impacted the CFP projection. I now have the Red Raiders ahead of Oregon for the No. 6 seed. The Ducks got a last second field goal to win in the rain at No. 20 Iowa.
The next highest rated team to lose was No. 14 Virginia, which lost at home to Wake Forest 16-7. The Cavaliers are now part of a five-way tie in the loss column for first place in the ACC, which should make the rest of November pretty interesting. My current bowl projection was based on a three-way tie for first among Georgia Tech, SMU and the Cavaliers. None of those teams play each other this season.
Penn State almost got the upset of the season against Indiana on Saturday. Omar Cooper, Jr. made a leaping catch and somehow got a toe down inside the back line of the end zone with 37 seconds left to give the Hoosiers a 27-24 win.
See the full bowl projections here.
I’ll have my projected top 25 tomorrow in advance of the second weekly CFP rankings.
There is a big headline game this week among top ten teams that will go a long way to deciding a conference race and automatic bid.
I'm looking forward to it. Should be fun. It’s nothing like what’s going on in the American Conference though, which may also get an automatic berth to the CFP. That depends on which of the SIX teams currently tied for first survives the next five weeks.
The favorite of the CFP Selection Committee this week is Memphis. The Tigers have two games left against the other contenders, Home against Navy and at East Carolina, so they can really earn their way in. Or get bounced.
The same goes for Navy, which can’t afford another conference loss even if the Midshipmen can still win the title. That is because they face Notre Dame this week and a three-loss Navy is an unlikely CFP team. Also, if Navy does win the league and gets to the CFP, they will have their game with Army sandwiched the week between the conference championship game and the first round of the CFP.
The team in the best position to get to the end with just one conference loss is North Texas, which does not face any of the other contenders in November.
It should be a wild ride to the finish, which begins on Friday.
Speaking of which…
all times Eastern
Memphis enters this game with a question at quarterback. Starter Brandon Lewis was injured in the fourth quarter last week against Rice and missed the rest of the game. His status for tonight is still in doubt, but I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t go.
Tulane may have got caught looking ahead last week and got spanked 48-26 by UTSA. If the Green Wave does not make the CFP, that loss could be the reason why.
Pick: Memphis - 3.5
I can’t say that I am surprised that BYU is an underdog, but 10.5 points? I would guess it is pretty rare for a relatively healthy, higher ranked team to hit the road this late in the season as a double-digit dog.
Both of these teams are prolific on offense, but Tech is better on defensive. That combined with the home crowd is enough to pick them to win, but not by double digits.
Pick: BYU +10.5
The Hoosiers have never won at Penn State. That is about to change.
The Nittany Lions are on a five-game skid that started with the home loss to Oregon. Since then, they have lost QB Drew Allar and Coach James Franklin. Even though they have been losing, Penn State has been in most of those games. The exception was last week against Ohio State.
Indiana is not really known for letting off the gas. If they get Penn State down, the Hoosiers will keep coming after them. There is a decent chance that this game gets ugly.
Pick: Indiana -14.5
Oregon in particular is known for its high flying offense but these are both very good defensive teams. The Ducks struggled to score in their last trip to the Midwest, a 21-7 win at last place Wisconsin.
Iowa’s defense is no fun to play against regardless of where you play them, but I question whether they can generate enough offense to actually win.
I’m not terribly comfortable with the spread, but I like the under.
Pick: Under 42.5
The Aggies put their undefeated ranking on the line against a Missouri team looking to stay in CFP contention.
The Tigers have played well against the better teams on their schedule, but came up short. They lost at home to Alabama and at Vanderbilt by a combined ten points.
Texas A&M has been good at finding ways to win close games, most memorably the one at Notre Dame in week two, which is their only win over a team in the current rankings.
Mizzou will definitely hang around. Maybe the Tigers will finally pull a close game out here, but I’m sticking with Texas A&M in a tight one.
Pick: Missouri +7
What will we see from LSU in the first game of the post-Brian Kelly era? This is a rivalry game, so I don’t expect a no-show performance, but are they good enough for it to matter?
The Crimson Tide has been especially good in front of the home fans this season, beating their three major conference foes by an average of 19 ppg. I expect no different this time.
Pick: Alabama -10
As noted above, Navy could really use a win here, but more often than not, they are overmatched athletically. This is still the case this season. The Midshipmen have not played of the caliber of the Irish yet this season. The best team that have face by far is North Texas and the lost by 14. Notre Dame should have an easy time of it.
Pick: Notre Dame -27.5
Hawaii is always tough at home and with the league leading Aztecs coming to town, this figures to be no exception.
San Diego State has had a pretty soft schedule. Their only loss though came at 4-5 Washington St. They need to guard against looking ahead to Boise State next week.
Pick: Hawaii -7, +212
I guess I can’t complain too much about the committee’s top 12. My prediction matched it exactly except that I had the wrong team hosting the 8-9 game.
Another thing I predicted that ended up being correct is that only the four major conferences are represented in the top 25. That is a problem because the five highest rated conference champions get automatic bids to the CFP. If this were selection Sunday, they committee would take time to select a fifth champion after producing the top 25. Obviously, that team would be seeded 12th. There is no provision for excluding a fifth champion if it is not ranked. Five shall be the number of champions guaranteed bids, and the number of champions shall be five.
In fact, my only complaint I guess is that Pitt is included in the top 25 over Cincinnati (the team I missed) or some others. Their profiles are pretty similar except that Cincinnati does not have a bad loss, while Pitt has a loss at 3-6 West Virginia. Pitt has a better scoring margin, so that must be a mitigating factor.
We’ll do this again next week, of course. Six of the top ten teams in the rankings are playing on the road this week, and three against other ranked opponents.
You can revisit my projected top 25 here
There was not much change in the CFP portion of the projections, at least at the top. The first seven seeds are the same as last week. BYU and Notre Dame are back in the projection, while Miami and Tennessee fell out.
If there is only one ACC team in the CFP this season, which is what I have projected this morning, you can thank NC State. The Wolfpack beat Georgia Tech 48-36 on Saturday to had the Yellow Jackets their first loss of the season. That put Virginia on top of the ACC standings, but the Cavaliers also lost to NC State for their only defeat of the season so far. The difference is that the Virginia’s contest with the Wolfpack was part of each team’s non-conference schedule.
Miami lost again, this time at SMU. That has knocked the Hurricanes out of the CFP projection.
I am still predicting a Georgia Tech conference title, but it looks like whichever team wins the conference, it will be the only representative from the league.
At the other end of the standings, Florida State and North Carolina each got their first conference wins. The Seminoles took out some frustrations on Wake Forest in a 42-7 win. UNC beat Syracuse 27-10 on Friday and has another potentially winnable game next week when Stanford visits.
In the SEC, Arch Manning finally had a big day in a big game. He threw for 328 yards and three touchdowns and no interceptions in a 34-31 win over Vanderbilt. The Commodores made a furious fourth quarter rally to try to get back from 14 points down, but the Longhorns held them off.
Both teams are now 7-2 overall and still in the hunt for a spot in the CFP, but there is no margin for error. It still seems unlikely that 9-3 will be good enough to get into the field, even for an SEC team.
That is now the best that Tennessee can do after losing at home to Oklahoma 33-27. The Sooners got a late touchdown on the ground from QB John Mateer for the decisive margin. Oklahoma can’t rest easy though. They get a week off before a road trip to Tuscaloosa to play Alabama.
Mississippi State finally got off the schneid! The Bulldogs won at Arkansas 38-27 to end a 16-game winless streak in SEC play.
BYU has a one game lead over Texas Tech and Cincinnati in the Big 12 following the Bearcats 45-14 loss at Utah. The Cougars still have road games left with both the Red Raiders and Cinci.
It’s anyone’s race in the American Conference now after losses by Navy and Tulane over the weekend left the league with six teams with one loss on conference play.
Despite a loss to UAB last week, Memphis is still in the most control of its own fate. By the end of the season, it will have played four of the other five teams. The Tigers won’t play Tulane, but they already have a win over USF and play the other three to end the regular season.
Just when you thought things were getting crazy, we get a dose of LSU crazy.
The normal part of this is that last Sunday, Athletic Director Scott Woodward fired coach Brian Kelly after a 5-3 start to the season and three decent years before that. However, there were no conference titles and no College Football Playoff appearances. LSU’s standards for success are pretty high. That is not a criticism.
The crazy part is that the Jeff Landry, the Governor of Louisiana, decided that he, not Woodward, would hire the new coach. His main complaint is Kelly’s $53M buyout and went on a rant about huge buyouts in coaches contracts in general. Landry was the AD at Texas A&M when Jimbo Fisher was hired, but was already gone when the Aggies extended him in 2021 and fired him in 2023. The buyout on the extended contract was $77 million, the only one larger than Kelly’s.
Landry has a point. The money it takes to get a top coach is insane, and there is a lot of financial risk if it doesn’t work out. Fisher and Kelly had been successful coaches when they were hired. Fisher won a national championship at Florida State in 2013, the last season of the BCS.
I’ll be curious to see what kind of a coach Landry or his appointee can get with the amount of money he thinks should be spent. He is likely in for an even ruder awakening. Or maybe he’ll revolutionize college football financing. I’m betting on the former.
One quick scheduling note: With the first of this season's weekly CFP rankings being released on Tuesday, I will have my predicted top 25 on Monday.
On to this week’s picks. We have already had one upset with UTSA handing Tulane (-5.5) its first conference loss of the season, leaving Navy as the lone unbeaten in the American Conference standings. Let’s see if we can find at least one more.
all times Eastern
Remember how we all had this one circled on our calendar at the start of the season? So much for that.
Penn State has fallen completely apart after losing at home to Oregon and losing QB Drew Allar in the Northwestern game. Ethan Grunkemeyer has struggled in relief, as you would expect. Maybe the week off will help. Expect no mercy from the Buckeyes though.
Pick: Ohio State -19.5, Under
The last time Texas played a game in its home stadium was September 20th against Sam Houston. They have done a good enough job navigating their time away from home with three wins in four games, including the big neutral site game with Oklahoma. The other two were OT wins over lesser teams in the conference, but a win I sa win.
Vandy and especially QB Diego Pavia are taking the college football world by storm, but this figures to be a tough test. The Commodores wilted some in their last road game at No. 4 Alabama, but that is a very good team. Texas was supposed to be that team, but they haven’t show it yet.
One thing is for sure, the Commodores won’t back down. If they can frustrate Arch Manning into a bad day, they may even win.
Pick: Vanderbilt +3
The World’s Largest Cocktail Party no longer goes by that name and the Florida coach also no longer has the same name. Billy Napier was fired following the win over Mississippi State two weeks ago and another Billy – Gonzales – takes over for the Gators.
Georgia’s normally stout defense was struggling to contain Ole Miss in a back and forth affair two weeks ago before completely shutting down the Rebels and walking away with a win.
Florida may bring a boost of energy to this game after the coaching change, but the Bulldogs are just too good.
Pick: Georgia +7.5
There is a lot on the line in Knoxville as the loser will pick up its third loss of the season and fall out of CFP contention.
The Volunteers prolific offense will be tested by the Sooners, which feature a top ten defense despite playing in a conference with so many good offenses.
For the Sooners to hang around, they will need to see the good version of QB John Mateer, who has not quite been up to his pre-injury form since coming back from it after missing the game against Kent State.
Pick: Tennessee -2.5
This seems like a big line for the home team considering Cincinnati is higher ranked and undefeated in league play, but the Bearcats will be without top RB Evan Pryor. That puts a lot more pressure on QB Brendan Sorby, who is third in the league in total offense already at 283.5 yards per game.
Except for a loss to Texas Tech, which looks like the class of the conference, the Utes have been not just good, but dominant at home. They could be getting their starting QB Devon Dampier back from injury, but if not, backup Byrd Ficklin is ready to go again after leading Utah to a 53-7 win over Colorado.
This would be tough sledding for Cincinnati at full strength. It’s hard to like them shorthanded,
Pick: Utah -10.5
The best bet in this game is probably the over. Both of these teams can light up scoreboards with North Texas QB Drew Mestemaker dominating the skies and scoreboards and Navy QB Blake Horvath leading the Midshipmen’s ground attack.
This is a big game in the conference race and one I believe to go down to the wire. I think at worst, Navy covers, but I also like them to win.
Pick: Navy +6.5, +230, Over
For the first time this season, the same twelve teams are in this week’s CFP projection as last week’s. There has just been a little shuffling of the order.
It helped that the only team to lose among last week’s twelve was South Florida and that was baked into the projection already. The Bulls lost at Memphis 34-31.
Texas A&M moves up to the 4-seed and the Cotton Bowl after winning at LSU. They are now projected to finish the regular season undefeated, but lose to Alabama in the SEC title game.
It is still a Big Ten-SEC heavy bracket, with the top six teams evenly split from those two conferences and two more SEC teams down the line. Texas Tech is the lone Big 12 team for now.
For the first time this season, I have two teams projected to finish below .500 in a bowl game. Northwestern and Rice were picked by APR scores among the projected 5-7 teams.
Before we get to the picks, there is a bit of news from the College Football Playoff folks this week.
Randall McDaniel has stepped away from his role on the CFP Selection Committee for this season due to personal reasons. McDaniel is a former all-American at Arizona State and a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame. He is expected to return to the committee next season. Due to the late timing of the change, he will not be replaced for this season.
The first of this season's weekly CFP rankings releases is Tuesday, Nov. 4 at 8 p.m. ET. Selection Sunday is Dec. 7.
On to this week’s picks. There are three games between ranked opponents and not surprisingly, all three are in the SEC, which has ten of the teams ranked in this week's AP top 25,
all times Eastern
Ole Miss is coming off a disappointing loss at Georgia last week in which the Rebels were largely in control of the game until the fourth quarter. The Bulldogs held them off the scorebord in the final period and came from behind to win.
Oklahoma counters the Rebels' offensive firepower with the top defense in the nation, allowing only 213 yards per game. The Sooners are also second in scoring defense at 9.4 points per game. The teams' schedules go in opposite directions from here. This is the last game for Ole Miss against a team in this week's rankings. For the Sooners, this is the first of five straight games against ranked opponents.
Pick: Ole Miss +5.5
Memphis really put themselves in jeopardy last week with a loss at UAB. Now, the Tigers' margin for error is gone in terms of making the CFP. The champion of the American Conference is still the most likely among the group of five to get a place in the bracket. Memphis is a game back of USF, Navy and Tulane in the conference standings, but play each of them at home.
The Tigers may be without starting QB Brendon Lewis, who left the UAB game in the second half with an injury.
The Bulls have been the best team in the league since the start, when they demolished Boise State 34-7. They are led by dual threat QB Byrum Brown, who leads the team in passing and rushing and has accounted for 22 of the team's 35 touchdowns.
Pick: Memphis +6
BYU comes to Iowa State looking to do what it does best - pound the ball. The Cougars, once known for QBs the likes of Ty Detmer, Steve Young and Jim McMahon, is one of the top rushing teams in the country behind QB Bear Bachmeier and RB LJ Martin.
Iowa State had a much needed week off after two straight road losses. The Cyclones will get RB Carson Hanses back after he missed all but one half of the losses at Colorado and Cincinnati.
I think BYU will win, but with both teams focused on running the ball, I'll take the under.
Pick: Under 49.5
Vanderbilt is coming off a big win over LSU, but not a "throw the goal posts in the river" big. That was good to see. The Commodores - and their fans - are setting their sights higher and they look like they are up to the task behind the electric play of QB Diego Pavia.
Mizzou has kind of flown under the radar. The Tigers are ranked in the top fifteen, but get the least amount of attention of any of the ten ranked SEC teams. That is probably because the first noteworthy team they played - Alabama at home two weeks ago, beat them 27-24. Last week, Missouri played its first road game of the season, an overtime win at Auburn.
If Vandy can inhibit the Missouri run game some, it should end up a win for the Commodores
Pick: Vanderbilt -2.5
This should be fun. This game features the top two scoring offenses and top two quarterbacks in total touchdowns.
The difference is that Cincinnati has played good enough defense to win all their games. The Bearcats only loss came when they scored just 17 points against Nebraska.
The Bears defense is giving up over 30 points per game as well, which puts a lot more pressure on the offense to produce.
Cincinnati should send the homecoming crowd home happy after a shootout win.
Pick: Cincinnati -3.5, Over
The last undefeated team in the SEC is Texas A&M. The Aggies head to LSU to take on a Tiger team that is still struggling offensively.
The Aggies have been much better defensively at home than away. They have only played twice away from College Station and gave up 40+ points both times. They won anyway. They have been held below 30 only once, a 16-10 win over Auburn.
LSU would probably still need eight quarters to get to 40 against the Aggies, even at home. Well, maybe seven quarters. They are the lowest scoring team in the SEC with a winning record.
The heat is on Coach Brian Kelly, who could use a big win to quiet the critics. The Tigers' defense is good enough to limit the damage from the Aggies, but probably still not good enough to get the win.
Pick: Texas A&M -2.5
Arch Manning has struggled at times in his first season as the Longhorns' starting QB. He has completed just over 58% of his passes against major conference teams and they went 2-2 in those games. They are fortunate that it is not 1-3 after needing overtime to win at Kentucky last week.
The Bulldogs are riding a 15-game conference losing streak. That almost came to an end last week at Florida, but a Blake Shapen interception put an end to a potential drive to a game winning field goal. They also gave Tennessee a good run in a 7-point loss earlier.
One of these days, the Bulldogs will hit paydirt. Maybe Texas is finally the team they break through against.
Pick: Mississippi State +7.5, +230
Hey! Didn’t you used to be undefeated? There were 11 undefeated teams entering week eight and now there are six. Navy was the only one with the week off.
The biggest upset among the losers was Memphis falling at UAB, which was 2-4 entering the game and had just fired its coach. The Tigers were a 21.5-point favorite.
The loss is a black eye to be sure, but Memphis still controls its own fate for the American Conference title and the berth in the CFP that would likely accompany it. They still play South Florida, Tulane and Navy, the three remaining undefeated teams in conference play, all at home.
There was a lot of shuffling in this week’s College Football Playoff projections as a result. It seems like every week is giving us a few head scratching results. It’s been a weird season.
For example, Penn State loses at home to Oregon in overtime, and follows that up with a loss to then-winless UCLA. But that’s not all. After that, they lost at home to Northwestern, lost QB Drew Allar for the season, and lost Coach James Franklin, who was fired after the game. This week, the Nittany Lions losing streak extended to four with a 25-24 loss at Iowa.
The good news is that Penn State has a bye this week, which could not come at a better time. The Nittany Lions are now 3-4 overall and in a five-way tie for last in the Big Ten at 0-4.
The bad news is that the first two games after the bye week are at Ohio State and home to Indiana, the top two teams in this week’s CFP projection. Yikes.
Penn State is not the only team that has had a season like this.
Florida State got off to a 3-0 start that included a win over Alabama. Since then, the Seminoles have lost four straight, the last two of which were to Pitt and at Stanford. Like Penn State, they are now 3-4 overall and 0-4 in conference play and are off this week.
Clemson was the original tanker this season, turning a season opening loss to LSU into three losses in their first four games. The Tigers are now 3-4 overall after losing at home this week to SMU and will play Florida State on Nov. 8. That was a game many had circled on their calendars before the season started. Now, at best, it will feature two .500 teams.
UCLA has been the opposite of all that. The Bruins have now won three straight with an interim coach after an 0-4 start. They are at Indiana this week with another chance to wreak havoc on the college football season.
Florida coach Billy Napier became the ninth coach to lose his job this season after the Gators let him go on Sunday. What is unique about this firing is that it came following a win. Florida beat Mississippi State 23-21 on Saturday.
Receivers coach Billy Gonzalez will be the interim coach.
Wisconsin coach Luke Fickel’s job looks safe for now after AD Chris McIntosh met with the team this week and left the impression that Fickel would return next season. Fickel’s buyout at the end of the season is an estimated $25M. The Badgers have lost their last two games by a combined score of 71-0. They travel to Oregon this week.
Before I get to the picks, a bit of news from yesterday. Indiana coach Curt Cignetti signed an 8-year extension for approximately $93 million dollars to keep him on the Hoosiers sideline until the 61-year-old likely retires.
There are five ranked-on-ranked matchups tomorrow, and I have managed to pick four teams that are the higher ranked in their respective games, but still are underdogs.
Meanwhile, LSU is one of the top defenses in the SEC, averaging only 11.8 points per game against it. The Tigers have allowed more than ten points only once, which was in their only loss so far at Ole Miss.
For LSU to win this game, the Tigers have to make Pavia uncomfortable as a passer and LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier has to take care of the ball.
Pick: LSU +1.5
Two of the top quarterbacks in the ACC face off in his one. Georgia Tech's Haynes King is better known as a runner than a thrower. He is the Yellow Jackets leading rusher but he is a capable passer as well.
Meanwhile, Duke QB Darian Mensah is the ACC's leading passer with over 300 yards per game and has led the Blue Devils to three straight wins to open conference play.
Both teams are among the five that are still undefeated in league play.
Probably the most surprising thing about this game is that we have a top 15 team as a underdog on the road to an unranked team. So, if you're going to give me Georgia Tech and points, I'll take them.
Pick: Georgia Tech +2.5
Texas Tech has arguably been the most dominant team in college football so far this season. The Red Raiders have yet to trail in any game and have won by an average of more than 35 points per game. Granted, the schedule hasn't been overly daunting, but they did hand Utah and Houston their only loss so far in Texas Tech's only road games to date.
The game against the reigning Big 12 champion Sun Devils may not go much differently. Utah beat the Sun Devils by 32 last week. Where's Cam Skattebo when you need him?
Pick: Texas Tech -7.5
USC comes in off a win over Michigan last week to move to 5-1 on the season. The Trojans only loss came at unranked Illinois at the end of September. In fact, this is their first game against a team in the current rankings. It's a big one if they hope to make a case for a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Trojans still have a trip to Oregon as well.
The Irish have slim CFP hopes as well after starting the season 0-2, but a win over USC would be its best of the season, not just now, but at the end as well.
So there is a lot at stake in the 96th meeting of this storied rivalry. It also might mean eternal bragging rights as there are no more future meetings currently scheduled.
Pick: USC +9.5
The traditional Third Saturday in October has a lot on the line. Both teams are still in the hunt for a spot in the CFP and Alabama is a current co-leader in the SEC race.
If the Vols are going to win this game, QB Joey Aguilar has to take care of the ball. He has five interceptions so far this season and at least one fumble.
Pick: Alabama -8.5
BYU QB Bear Bachmeier is having a great freshman campaign 1220 yards and eight touchdowns. He has been Big 12 Freshman of the Week three times, including last week after the Cougars' win at Arizona.
Again, the higher ranked team, which is also at home, is the underdog.
Pick: BYU +3.5
I think this game will be close and higher scoring. It should be close enough to cover this spread and the Rebels have a good chance of stealing a win.
Pick: Ole Miss +7, +230
After beating No. 3 Oregon 30-20 on Saturday for its first road win over a top five team in the entire history of the program, Indiana suddenly looks like a legitimate national title contender
You’ll have to forgive those of us in Big Ten country if we are in a complete state of shock over this. Indiana is a basketball school, which is well known. It has never been a football school. Oh, there have been fleeting moments of glory. It has two conference titles (1945, 1967). It has been ranked in the final AP poll seven times, including last season.
More typically though, we tend to think of Indiana football as the program that had one winning season from 1995-2018 (7-6 in 2007). The Hoosiers had two or fewer conference wins in 18 of those seasons. So, if you told Indiana fans in 1987, the year of its most recent national title in men’s basketball, that it would win a national championship in football before it did so again in hoops, they would laugh you out of town.
OK, I’m getting the cart before the horse a bit. There is a long way to go to a national championship, but Indiana showed on Saturday that it has to be considered on the short list of favorites. The Hoosiers will be heavily favored in the remainder of its regular season games, including the one at whatever is left of Penn State on Nov. 8. Only No. 1 Ohio State stands in Indiana’s way on the path to its first Big Ten championship since before Neil Armstrong walked on the moon.
Indiana is up to No. 5 in this week’s bowl projection. If Ohio State ends up being the only loss for the Hoosiers, this is a floor.
Texas Tech has moved up to a bye as the third seed. They are placed in the Sugar Bowl, which was the Big 12’s home prior to the CFP. That moves fourth seed Alabama to the Cotton Bowl.
New to the projections this week are BYU and LSU at 10 and 11 respectively. They replaced Florida State, a loser at home to Pitt this week, and Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets have strength of schedule problem, especially when compared to some of the SEC teams they could compete with.
Speaking of whatever is left of Penn State...breaking news on Sunday. Coach James Franklin was let go on Sunday following a three-game losing streak to Oregon, previously winless UCLA, and Northwestern. Losing to Ohio State every year is fine. Losing to UCLA and Northwestern is not. Penn State is currently 0-3 in the Big Ten and in a five-way tie for last place. Associate Head Coach Terry Smith will serve as the interim coach. This should be one of the more attractive jobs once teams get around to filling their openings.
There are two big games in the Big Ten, including Indiana looking for their first win against an elite team in the brief Curt Cignetti era.
The Buckeyes have been laying waste to everyone in their path, with the exception of their one road game, a 24-6 win at Washington. That was one of those three time zone road trips that we often see Big Ten teams struggle with. OSU needed a half to get going, but took control after halftime.
I do not expect Ohio State to be so sluggish against Illinois.
Pick: Ohio State -14.5
Missouri, like Vanderbilt last week, will come up short in its first real test. Pick: Alabama -3
This year Indiana crushed Illinois 63-10 at home in week four. They will need to take some of that mojo with them to Autzen Stadium, which is typically a house of horrors for Oregon's opponents.
The Ducks can win any way you like to play. They are rightly known for their high flying offense, but they are also an outstanding defensive team.
Indiana can announce itself as a strong national title contender with a win. Oregon already has done that. Pick: Oregon -7
Of bigger concern is how Florida was able to more the ball with relative ease against the Texas defense. The Gators piled up 457 yards against the Longhorns
It appears that Oklahoma QB John Mateer will play against Texas just a few weeks after needing hand surgery. That would be a big boost to the Sooners offense.
This game has the feel of a rock fight, but the Sooners are playing with more confidence. Pick: Oklahoma -1.5, Under 44.5
Florida's defense figures to get a better test this week than Texas provided. I like the Aggies to win at home, but in a close one. Pick: Florida +7.5
This week, they failed to do so in historically disastrous fashion. Following up last week’s overtime loss to Oregon, No. 7 Penn State lost 42-34 at previously winless UCLA. As you may know by now, that was the first time since 1985 that a top ten team lost to a team with a 0-4 record or worse. It has only happened four times before yesterday, most recently by UTEP, which was 0-6 when it beat No.7 BYU 23-16. It was the Miners only win of the season.
Others:
1958 Tulane (0-4) beat No. 6 Navy 14-6 at the Oyster Bowl in Norfolk, VA. This is the only game on this list not won by the home team.
1953 Purdue (0-4) beat No. 2 Michigan State 6-0. The “Spoilermakers” have the most wins as an unranked team over top 5 opponents with 17.
1941 Pitt (0-5) beat No. 3 Fordham 13-0. Fordham went on to win the Sugar Bowl over No. 7 Missouri 2-0.
Penn State dropped all the way out of the AP Poll this week. They also fell out of the CFP projections.
The Nittany Lions are also a common opponent of the three Big Ten teams in this week’s CFP projection: Oregon, Indiana and Ohio State, so Penn State's loss affects them too. The strength of schedule impact isn’t too bad by itself, but Penn State is not viewed as a high quality opponent any more, which would impact how the committee views those games. The Nittany Lions play Ohio State and Indiana on back-to-back weeks to start November.
Also dropping out of the CFP projections is Texas, a 29-21 loser at Florida . The Gators sacked Longhorns’ QB Arch Manning six times and picked him off twice. Florida also got a big boost from the debut of freshman WR Dallas Wilson, who caught 6 passes for 111 yards and two touchdowns.
Texas also dropped out of the AP poll this week.
Miami took a big step forward in the ACC race with a 28-22 win at Florida State. The Hurricanes led 28-3 going into the fourth quarter, but held off a furious rally by the Seminoles. Ultimately, it was too little, too late.
The Hurricanes have moved up to the No. 3 seed in the CFP projections.
There are five teams still undefeated in conference play in the ACC and they hardly play each other going down the stretch. Duke will host both Georgia Tech and Virginia and Miami plays at SMU. That’s it.
Alabama handed Vanderbilt its first loss of the season 30-14, avenging last season’s defeat at Vandy. Ty Simpson had 340 yards passing and two touchdowns to lead the Crimson Tide. Diego Pavia, who led the Commodores to last season’s win, only threw for 183 yards and had two turnovers.
The other team that dropped out of this week’s CFP projection was Iowa State. The Cyclones lost 38-30 at Cincinnati. The Bearcats remain among the four teams undefeated in Big 12 play so far, joining Arizona State, BYU and Texas Tech. Despite the win, Cincinnati remains the only unranked team among that group.
The three new teams to the CFP projections this week are Georgia Tech, Texas Tech and Ole Miss. The Red Raiders were the only one of the three to play this week. They won at Houston35-11.
We don't have quite the drama built into this weekend as we had last weekend. That doesn't mean it will be quiet.
There is a battle for supremacy in the ACC and this is the week we find out just how good Vanderbilt is.
Hopefully, between now and next week's preview, we won't have a coaching change to report.
They are back at home now and it's Miami hitting the road for the first time this season. The Hurricanes have been largely dominant except for the game against the only other team they have played that is currently ranked, Notre Dame.
Besides the rivalry and potential position in the ACC race, this game is also important as a possible quality win. Neither team currently has an opponent left on their schedules that is ranked in this week's AP poll.
I like this game to go down to the wire, maybe even overtime. Pick: Florida State +4.5
However, Vandy has yet to beat anyone noteworthy this season. Alabama may or may not be the dominant force in college football that we have seen in the recent past, but the Tide is always noteworthy. They were good enough to go into Athens and beat Georgia last week, and that is noteworthy too.
There is no chance Alabama will not be ready for this game and it will come out looking to make a statement. We'll see if they can, but I expect a reasonably comfortable win either way. Pick: Alabama -10.5
Perhaps the Bulldogs could be that team. I'm not convinced they are, and that is especially true if the Aggies play with more discipline. For Mississippi State to succeed and make a game of this, they will need good run/pass balance, like they have all season. It can't be all on the arm of QB Blake Shapen. I think MSU hangs around, but Texas A&M gets the win. Pick: Mississippi State +16.5
The Gators' defense has done well against a difficult schedule that is only going to get worse. And all the pressure is on them because the Florida offense is the sixth lowest scoring offense in FBS.
With defenses this good and at best hit-and-miss offenses, I like the under, even at this number. Pick: Under 42.5
Iowa State hangs its hat on defense and it has to because its offense is not exactly prolific, despite a 39-point outburst against Arizona last week.
While I think Iowa State will come out with the win, I like the under better. Pick: Under 55.5
I assume Washington is favored because the Huskies showed well against Ohio State last week, but is one of those long road trips that the former Pac-12 teams have to deal with in the new world. Washington has yet to win one of those games and I don't think this will be the first. Pick: Maryland +6.5, +210
If you like chaos, that was a fun weekend!
Three of top 4 seeds from my previous bowl projections lost. Penn State and Georgia lost at home.
Historically speaking, neither of those losses should come as a big surprise.
Georgia has not defeated Alabama in an SEC game – regular season or conference championship – since 2007. Ten games total now after last night’s 24-21 win by the Crimson Tide.
Georgia’s only win in that stretch was a big one – the 2021 National Championship game.
Meanwhile, as he is no doubt sick of hearing about, Penn State coach James Franklin again failed to beat a top 10 opponent. Oregon needed overtime, but the Ducks came away with a 30-24 double overtime victory dropping Franklin’s record at Penn State vs. top10 opposition to 4-21.
Neither Georgia nor Penn State fell out of the playoff projections entirely, of course. It’s just one loss and not a very bad one. However, neither team is projected to get a bye.
The two winners are though. Oregon moved all the way up to the No. 2 seed in this week’s projection, right behind new No. 1 Ohio State. The Buckeyes beat Washington 24-6 in their first road game of the season.
Alabama is now fourth overall behind No.3 Florida State. Yes, I know. The Seminoles lost 46-38 in double OT at Virginia and that could end up as a pretty crappy loss. At the moment, the Cavaliers are 4-1 overall and they miss Georgia Tech and Miami in the regular season. They are at Louisville next week.
Florida State gets a chance to get back on track this week at home when the face Miami. The winner of this game will likely be in the ACC title game. Beat the Hurricanes and Florida State is back in the driver’s seat. Lose, and any shot at the CFP is probably gone.
LSU’s problems offensively continued in a 24-19 loss at Ole Miss. The Tigers are trying to win with defense. That’s a tough ask in these times. LSU has only scored more than 20 points once this season and the Rebels became the first team to score more than 10 against the Tigers.
It may be a tough path to the CFP, but you gotta do what works for you. This might be a good team to be the under on this season.
Note: Yes, I know LSU played SE Louisiana this season and score 56 points in that game. Nothing a team does in a game against FCS teams is meaningful unless it loses the game or a key player to an injury.
Indiana is the only new team in the CFP projection this week. The Hoosiers won a typical rock fight at Iowa 20-15. Indiana still has games at Oregon and Penn State ahead, so if they make the CFP this year, people won’t be able to complain too much about their schedule.
Sunday night came the news that coach Sam Pittman is out at Arkansas. That feels like it has been coming for some time. A familiar name has taken over – Former Razorbacks coach Bobby Petrino will serve as the interim coach for the rest of the season.
Before we get into a loaded weekend slate of games, Mike Gundy became the third coach to lose his job in the first few weeks of this season. Gundy had been at Oklahoma State since 2005. He finished 4-7 that first year, but had eighteen consecutive winning seasons after that, which included one conference title. The Cowboys broke that streak last season, finishing just 3-9 and last in the Big 12. This season was not off to a promising start with a 66-point loss at Oregon and a 7-point defeat at home to Tulsa.
Offensive coordinator Doug Meachem will serve as the interim coach. The Cowboys host Baylor on Saturday.
Meanwhile, down the road a piece in Norman, Oklahoma QB John Mateer had surgery on his throwing hand to repair a broken bone suffered in last week’s win over Auburn. It is unknown how long he will be out, but he is expected back sometime this season. Mateer was off to a great start and was considered one of the early front runners in the Heisman race.
Michael Hawkins, Jr. will take over as the starter in Mateer’s absence. Hawkins, Jr. started four games last season. Fortunately for the Sooners, they are off this week, Giving Hawkins, Jr. some extra time to work with the first team before taking over. Also, Oklahoma’s game after this break is Kent State, which should be a nice warmup leading into the showdown with Texas.
This weekend features one big game after another, with four ranked-on-ranked matchups.
I have been doing Upset of the Week picks for several years now, and since I’m picking a TD or more underdog to win outright, most of them miss. None have ever missed as bad as Illinois last week. I took the Illini as a 6.5 point dog at Indiana last week and they only lost by 53. I have higher hopes for this week’s choice.
But what to make of Illinois? Are they really that bad? We’ll find out this week. I expect that practice has not been much fun and they will be chomping at the bit to take the field. Their season may be on the line.
USC might just be happy to come back to the Midwest and have a game that starts on time after a four hour delay at Purdue a couple weeks ago. The Trojans have a balanced attack, but not overly explosive. They do have two defensive scores this season, so they have been opportunistic on defense.
I think USC picked a bad time to play Illinois, but it may not matter in the end. Pick: Illinois +6.5
So, the defense is going to have to carry LSU until the offense figures things out. That will be a bigger challenge this week at Ole Miss, which is currently averaging 44.8 ppg on offense.
Jaxson Dart is gone, off to save the Giants, and Trinidad Chambliss has started the last two games at QB and is a true dual-threat weapon. He has 719 yards and four TDs through the air and 195 yards and 2 more TDs rushing.
LSU may have to get creative offensively. You know Lane Kiffin will. Pick: Ole Miss -1.5
Senior QB Drew Allar is efficient, if not spectacular, but this offense is at its best when running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen are having their way. The pair has rushed for 452 yards and eight touchdowns in the first three games.
The Ducks also have an explosive offense, as they often do. QB Dillon Gabriel hit on a whopping 73% of his passes last season before moving on to the NFL. This year’s signal caller Dante Moore has completed 74.7% of his passes so far this season.
When the Ducks get into the Red Zone, watch out for freshman RB Jordon Davison, who already has six touchdowns this season on just 19 carries. This game is big for both teams, but maybe more for Penn State. The Ducks will likely be favored the rest of the way, but the Nittany Lions have a trip to Ohio State ahead of them. They may not be able to afford a home loss here. Pick: Penn State -3.5
Gunnar Stockton has been impressive taking over for Carson Beck, who transferred to Miami. Stockton has completed 71% of his passes and led the Bulldogs to a 44-41 win at Tennessee last time out. This is another one of those teams I rarely pick against at home, but especially this time since Alabama doesn’t quite look like ALABAMA. Pick: Georgia -3
But also….
Auburn comes in off a loss at Oklahoma in their first conference game of the season. The Tigers defense has been relatively good so far, but the Aggies are the best offensive team they have seen.Pick: Texas A&M -6.5
No. 15 Tennessee at Mississippi State, (+7.5, O/U 62.5), Saturday, 4:15 p.m. ET, SECN This should be fun, especially if you like cowbell. Otherwise, mute the TV. The Volunteers worst offensive performance of the season so far came in a 41-point performance against Georgia. The Bulldogs have not been quite so proficient on offense, but they have been good defensively, most notably holding Arizona State to 20 in their win over the Sun Devils. If this is a relatively low scoring game, I like Mississippi State’s chances, but I think the Vols offense will end up being too good to lose. Picks: Mississippi State +7.5, Over 62.5
There is one change from last week’s College Football Playoff projections. Texas Tech is now projected as the 9-seed after the Red Raiders’ dominant 34-10 win at Utah. They replace Illinois, which was obliterated, to put it kindly, 63-10 at Indiana.
Also, the preseason projected ACC champion Clemson has now fallen completely out of the bowl projections following a 34-21 loss at home to Syracuse. That is the Tigers worst loss of the season in every measure. Clemson has next week off and that could not come at a better time.
North Carolina lost at 34-9 at UCF and look like they still have a ways to go before they are competitive. The Tar Heels also have a week off before hosting Clemson.
Notre Dame finally picked up a win. The Fighting Irish beat Purdue 56-30 in a game that featured an almost 2-hour lightning delay with 1:31 to go in the first half. The Boilermakers’ home game with USC last week was delayed by almost four-hours due to storms.
Notre Dame is now 1-2 with a trip to Arkansas next week.
Speaking of the Razorbacks, they led at Memphis by 18-points at halftime, but couldn’t hold on at the Tigers rallied for a 32-31 win. After the Tigers took the lead with under 5:00 to go, Arkansas got down inside the Memphis 10-yard line, but fumbled the ball away and the chance to win with it.
That is the second win by an American Conference team over an SEC foe, following South Florida’s win at Florida. Those two teams look like the best contenders for a spot in the CFP among the Group of Five conferences.
Joining the coaching hot seat this week, if he wasn’t already on it, is long time Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy following a 19-12 loss at home to Tulsa. Gundy has been the Cowboys skipper since 2005, but is coming off a 3-9 season in which OSU was winless in Big 12 play. It looks like a 3-9 record this season will require a couple of upsets.
Wisconsin coach Luke Fickell’s seat has been pretty warm for a while, but it can’t help when the stadium starts chanting “Fire Luke Fickell!" during the game. The Badgers turned in a lackluster performance in a 27-10 loss to Maryland.
Next week has some juicy matchups, including Oregon heading to Penn State and Alabama at Georgia.
This is the last week of a schedule mostly filled with non-conference games. Despite that, we have a few conference games of note this week. Also, could we see yet another coach get fired? Let’s start with an in-state rivalry.
I feel like I am featuring Miami in this space every week and with good reason. The Hurricanes are off to a great start with wins over South Florida and Notre Dame already. Miami was dominant against the Bulls last week after USF had already beaten Boise State and won at Florida. The Canes have the look of a team that could not just make the College Football Playoff, but win it.
Meanwhile, the Gators are still looking for the first win against an FBS opponent after last week’s loss at No. 3 LSU. Florida has a very unforgiving schedule where they may have to pull an upset or two just to make a bowl game. This is the second of four consecutive opponents ranked in the current AP top 10. The Gators also have games against four currently ranked teams in November and two of those are top 10.
Yikes. Florida coach Billy Napier has been feeling the heat almost since he walked in the door in 2022. He is currently 20-21 in 3+ seasons. If things don’t turn around soon, he may not get to finish this season.
Miami should be able to come away with a comfortable, if not overwhelming win. Pick: Miami -9.5
Notre Dame is now 0-2 with both losses coming to ranked opponents by a total of four points. The Fighting Irish are the first 0-2 team to be ranked in the AP poll since Michigan was 19th in 1988. That was the last season that the poll only ranked 20 teams.
So it would seem that Purdue picked a bad time to play the Irish. The Boilers are better this season than last, but there was nowhere to go but up.
Purdue has a history of being Spoilermakers, but it seems pretty unlikely this week. Look for Notre Dame to take out some frustrations on the Boilers. Pick: Notre Dame -25.5
The Big 12 race could be a lot of fun. These teams are two of about half a dozen that have a realistic shot at winning the league.
Texas Tech is averaging 58 ppg to lead FBS, while the Utes are 14th despite having aleady played two road games. This is the first for the Red Raiders. The reality though is that neither team has been truly tested. That changes this week. I’m leaning toward Utah winning at home, but I like the over better. Pick (Over 56.5).
Every week, I will pick one team that is at least a 6-point underdog to win outright. This week, that team is ninth-ranked Illinois.
The Fighting Illini travel to Indiana to take on the 19th ranked Hoosiers, which have proudly played a lousy schedule so far.
I say “proudly" because when IU coach Curt Cignetti was questioned about canceling a series with Virginia, a power conference program, but not an especially good one at the moment, he ripped into the SEC for playing poor non-conference schedules and said he would “adopt (the) SEC scheduling philosophy".
Look, I don’t care who teams schedule outside their leagues. Each coach is doing what he thinks is best for his team. The CFP selection committee cares about SOS, so someday, that may come back to bite Indiana or some other team that does not test itself enough to impress the committee. We’ll see.
However, the comparison to the SEC is not entirely fair, especially for the better teams in that conference, which usually try to schedule at least one good game. Some of those are in-state rivals. This season, we have seen Texas at Ohio State, LSU at Clemson, Alabama at Florida State, Oklahoma vs. Michigan and Texas A&M at Notre Dame. Florida will play both Miami and Florida State. Georgia will play Georgia Tech later in the season. That is six good games by just the higher ranked teams in the SEC.
But, I digress. I like the Illini defense stifle the Hoosiers enough to let Illinois escape with the win. Pick: Illinois +6.5, +200 ML
A couple of heavy favorites to appear in the College Football Playoff lost on Saturday and have already been eliminated from at least at-large consideration.
That is a bigger problem for c, which, as an independent, has no other path to the CFP. Texas A&M scored on an 11-yard touchdown pass from Marcel Reed to to TE Nate Boerkircher with 13 seconds left to stun the Irish 24-21. Notre Dame fell to 0-2 and has likely already played their two best opponents. The Irish do not appear to have a strong enough schedule to get into the CFP at 10-2.
Purdue is better than it was last season – impossible not to be – but will likely be a welcome sight for the Irish next Saturday as they try to get off the schneid.
Clemson was the favorite in the ACC heading into the season, but they are now 1-2 overall and 0-1 in the conference following a 24-21 loss at Georgia Tech on a 55-yard field goal by Aiden Birr as time expired.
Clemson still has to play Florida State, so the path to the ACC title game will not be easy. The Tigers have no longer have a realistic path to an at-large bid.
With the losses, Clemson and Notre Dame dropped out of the CFP projection. They were replaced by Texas A&M and Illinois. The Illini are off to a 3-0 start, although none of those wins have been noteworthy. Illinois is at No. 19 Indiana on Saturday, starting a stretch of three games out of four against teams in this week’s AP rankings.
Miami gave South Florida its first loss of the season 49-12. It was another strong statement by the Hurricanes, especially after the Bulls had already defeated Boise State and Florida. Miami and Florida State, which play each other on Oct 4 in Tallahassee, and Georgia Tech, which plays neither of those two, appear to have the inside track to the ACC title game.
The game of the day, unless you like defense, was No. 5 Georgia’s 44-41 overtime win at 15th-ranked Tennessee. The teams traded punches for four quarters. The last of those punches was Gunnar Stockton’s 28-yard touchdown pass to London Humphreys, and subsequent two-point conversion, to tie the game at 38 with 2:40 to go. The Bulldogs won it in the first OT with a 1-yard touchdown run by Josh McCray.
That is Georgia’s ninth straight win over the Volunteers.
Florida fell at LSU for its second loss of the season. Things don’t get any easier for the Gators. They still have seven games left against teams ranked in this week’s AP top 15. And you thought your team’s schedule was hard.
UCLA coach DeShaun Foster’s seat was already uncomfortably warm entering the season. Losing 35-10 at home to 15.5-point underdog New Mexico on Friday was the final straw. Foster was fired on Sunday after the team's 0-3 start. Foster was 5-10 overall three games into his second season with the Bruins.
Special assistant Tim Skipper will serve as the interim coach. This is the second straight season Skipper has had that role. He was the interim coach at Fresno State last season.
UCLA gets a much needed week off before starting Big Ten play at Northwestern.
Virginia Tech also made a coaching move on Sunday. The Hokies fired head coach Brent Pry after a 45-26 loss at home to Old Dominion. Pry was in his fourth season with Virginia Tech and finished with a 16-24 record and two bowl appearances. Offensive Coordinator Phil Montgomery will serve as the interim coach.
Finally, the Arch Manning Watch – if that is still a thing – was again unwatchable this week, or at least for one quarter. The Texas freshman QB was 11-25 for 114 yards with one touchdown and one interception in a rather pedestrian 24-10 win over UTEP. He also had two rushing touchdowns. In the second quarter, Manning threw ten consecutive incompletions and an interception in the end zone to end the half.
After a relatively quiet week 2, we have a handful of potentially impactful games this weekend. Leading off, can South Florida do it again?
USF has already done its job in terms of putting itself at the front of the line for an AQ spot in the College Football Playoff. Wins over Boise State and at Florida to start the season all but guarantee the Bulls a place, provided they win the American Conference title.
That does not mean this game is unimportant. It’s still against a major conference in-state rival.
When we last saw Miami – and I am assuming most of us did not see them last week – the Hurricanes jumped out to a 21-7 lead on Notre Dame and held on for a 27-24 win. They limited the Irish to just 93 yards rushing after Notre Dame was one of the best running teams in the nation last season.
South Florida QB Byrum Brown can beat you with his arm and his legs. He has completed 65% of his passes and is averaging 3.5 yards per carry on the ground. The Bulls’ defense has been terrific so far, allowing only 25 points in two games and forcing four turnovers.
Miami should be able to come away with the win, but it won’t come easily and it won’t be a shootout. Picks: USF+17.5, Under 56.5
What do we know so far about these two teams? Basically, nothing. Georgia is significantly better than Marshall and Tennessee is well past Syracuse. So, this is the first time either team will face a team that can test them.
The Volunteers are looking for their first conference title since 1998. Georgia has five since then, including two of the last three. The Bulldogs are still the top dog until proven otherwise. Pick: Under 50.5
The Irish had a week off to lick their wounds from a physical loss at Miami to start the season. Their margin for error in terms of making the CFP is gone. It would be surprising if Notre Dame made the playoff at 10-2 regardless of which team beats the Irish for that second loss. Their schedule just isn’t strong enough.
The Aggies are arguably the second best team on Notre Dame’s schedule, after Miami. In fact, the Aggies are the last currently ranked team on their schedule.
We don’t know much more about Texas A&M than we do Georgia or Tennessee, although the Aggies have managed to avoid playing a FCS team so far.
I like the Irish to win at home, but I’m not comfortable with the spread. Pick: Under 50.5
The Tigers will need to be more like the team that showed up for the second half if they expect to win at Georgia Tech. QB Haynes King is the engine that makes the Yellow Jackets go. He ran for 156 yards and three TDs in the season opening win at Colorado. The Tigers need to slow King and the Tech running game down to come away with the win. Pick: Clemson -3
My record so far: 2-1 last week, 3-4 overall
No. 18 Oklahoma won the only game between ranked opponents, downing Fifteenth-ranked Michigan 24-13. The Sooners held Wolverines' QB Bryce Underwood to just 9-24 passing for 142 yards in his first career road game.
John Mateer, the Washington State transfer, led the Sooners by throwing for one touchdown and running for two more. He accounted for 344 of Oklahoma’s 408 total yards.
The game that had the biggest impact on the bowl projections though was South Florida's. The Bulls followed up their demolition of Boise State last week with an 18-16 win over No. 13 Florida in the Swamp.
South Florida's start to the season is too good to ignore and the Bulls are now the projected 12-seed in the College Football Playoff projection, replacing fellow American Conference member Memphis. They will face each other in Memphis on Oct. 25th.
The other change to the CFP projection this week is Florida State replacing SMU after the Mustangs lost at home to Baylor in double overtime. The Seminoles are projected as the 11-seed.
For the first time this season, my bowl projection does not have enough teams projected to finish .500 or better. I came up one team short, so Cincinnati gets the nod as the 5-7 team with the best APR rating. Last year, there wasn’t a need for a sub-.500 team until Marshall dropped out after the bowls were announced. They were replaced by Louisiana Tech, which was 5-7.
Sooners QB Josh Mateer, a transfer from Washington State, set a school record for most passing yards in his Oklahoma debut with 390 in a 35-3 victory over FCS Illinois State. So, we still don’t know very much about the Sooners. We will after this week.
If Underwood can avoid the big mistakes in his first road game, the Wolverines have a chance to win. Regardless, this should be a tight battle. Pick (Michigan +5.5)
Florida took it easy last week, pounding Long Island 55-0. The Gators can expect to have to work harder to beat the Bulls, and they likely will, but I think it will be a low scoring affair. (Pick under 56.5)
WHAT WAS THAT??? ARCH MANNING SUCKS!!!
No, he doesn’t. He’ll be fine. Ohio State is probably going to make a lot of good offensive players look bad this season. The Buckeyes’ defense looks like it hasn’t lost anything from last season and might even be better. But let’s see how they do on the road. We may have to wait a while for their first good road test though.
Ohio State moved up one spot to No. 3 following Notre Dame’s loss at Miami.
Meanwhile, Texas should be able to get their legs back under them and take out some frustrations throughout the rest of this month before heading to Florida to start an October that has no home games. The Longhorns still have a trip to Georgia ahead of them as well, but write them off at your peril.
Texas is unaffected by their own result in this week’s bowl projections in part because it was expected, although there was some shuffling around them.
The margin for error is about gone for the Irish. Notre Dame figures to be favored, probably comfortably so, the rest of the way. The best teams left on their schedule, USC and their next opponent, Texas A&M, have to play in South Bend.
LSU moved into the CFP projections off a win at Clemson, debuting at No. 4 this week. LSU had the only noteworthy road win of the weekend among potential CFP contenders. Clemson is still the projected ACC champion, but falls to No. 7 in the seedings.
Miami looks like a contender after a 27-24 win over Notre Dame. They are projected as the 11-seed, which is the final at-large spot. The Irish are 9th, with SMU between them. The Mustangs host the Hurricanes on Nov. 1, which may have a lot on the line for both teams.
Boise State’s time in the CFP projections was short lived following a 34-7 loss at South Florida. The Broncos only path to the CFP now involves winning the Mountain West, of course, and hoping for the best in the other Group of Five conferences. Or beat Notre Dame.
Memphis is the new Group of Five representative in this week’s projection, but the title race in the American could be pretty open as well. Tulane was impressive in dismantling Northwestern.
Outside the CFP, TCU gave Bill Belichick a hostile welcome to College Football. The Horned Frogs blasted North Carolina 48-14 in front of a sellout crowd that started leaving at halftime. The Tar Heels’ offense gave up as many touchdowns as it scored. Carolina has a relatively soft conference schedule, so bowl eligibility shouldn’t be an issue, but there is a lot of work to be done. Meanwhile, count the Horned Frogs among the lengthy list of contenders in the Big 12.
I have projected one more eligible team than I have spots in bowl games. That team is Southern Miss. However, the Bahamas Bowl has yet to be rescheduled, which is still expected.
USF knocked off No. 25 Boise State 34-7 on Thursday to put a big dent in the Broncos’ chances to go back to the College Football Playoff. They have to win the Mountain West to have a chance to qualify and this game doesn’t impact that, but now they have to win out to finish 12-1. That means winning at Notre Dame on Oct. 4. 11-2 is unlikely to be good enough to get to the CFP.
That is a nice appetizer for the rest of the weekend. Here is a look at some other games of note, starting with will likely be one of the biggest games of the season.
Most of the talk will be about the two quarterbacks, the much ballyhooed Arch Manning and former 5-start recruit Julian Sayin. We got to see a bit of Manning last season, and Sayin got some reps in the Tennessee game for the Buckeyes. As usual, the Buckeyes will have a load of talent to for Sayin to throw to, led by all-American Jeremiah Smith.
But like most games, this is likely to be won at the line of scrimmage. The team that can do the best job of keeping their QBs comfortable will likely win.
I almost never pick against OSU at home. Today is no exception. Pick: Ohio St (-1)
Thomas Castellanos, who beat Florida State last season at Boston College, is the new signal caller for the Seminoles. Alabama is coming off a season with four losses, which is a lot by their lofty standards. Coach Kalen DeBoer is already feeling some heat as he enters his second season. As always, talent is not the problem at Alabama. They will need a more dynamic offense to achieve their goals this season. The Tide’s new QB is Ty Simpson and will have one of the most explosive receivers in the country to target in Ryan Williams to throw to.
This seems like a big line, but I’m not buying Florida State until they show me something. Pick: Alabama(-14)
This game probably comes down to defense though and Clemson has one of the best in the country, led by a stout line that got better with the addition of Will Heldt from Purdue. LSU’s defense was a mess last season, but shored things up with a handful of transfers to upgrade the talent.
Still, I trust the Clemson defense more and like them to walk away with the win. Pick: Clemson (-4).
Carson Beck is the new QB for Miami after transferring from Georgia. When we last saw Beck, he mostly stood injured on the sideline and watched the Fighting Irish beat his Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinal of the CFP. He will need to do well against a tough Irish defense if Miami is to win. Notre Dame QB CJ Carr gets his first start, but the Irish will still be primarily a ground and pound offense, so not as much will be asked of him as Beck.
It probably won’t be easy, but I like Notre Dame to get the win. Pick: Under 49.5
The Big 12 race should be a fun one to follow this season. As many as six teams have the talent and schedule to make a run at the title. A race that competitive at the top could also make it difficult to get multiple teams into the College Football Playoff. This morning’s tweak of the bowl projections drops Kansas State out and puts Oklahoma in as a fourth team from the SEC. Iowa State is now projected to get into the CFP as the 7-seed and Big 12 champion.
Becht threw for 183 yards and two TDs and ran seven yards for a score with 6:38 to go to put ISU up ten.
It was a sloppy game in sloppy conditions, especially early on. The Cyclones punted on its first possession, but the Wildcats fumbled it away inside their ten-yard-line. Kansas State then extended the ISU drive with a pass interference penalty on third down, but the Cyclones couldn’t capitalize, fumbling the ball away themselves.
One other noteworthy result from Saturday was Hawaii’s 23-20 win over Stanford on a last second field goal. Former Cardinal star Andrew Luck took over as Stanford football’s general manager this spring. He has a very tough job ahead of him rebuilding this program back to its glory days.
The winning field goal was kicked byHawaii’s Kansei Matsuzawa, who taught himself how to kick watching videos on YouTube.
The SEC announced on Thursday that it will move to nine conference games starting with the 2026 season.
It is a move that needed to happen. With a league of this size, you should play as many conference games as reasonably possible to make the regular season conference title race as fair as possible. It is not ever going to be completely fair in a league this size, but every little bit helps.
This may be the end of what I have called SEC Sabbatical Saturday. That is the Saturday before Thanksgiving, when several SEC teams play non-conference games against Group of Five teams or FCS teams. This season, there are six such games, three against each group.
I am not saying those games will not be played, but that they may now get played in September and that that Saturday will be primarily used for conference games.
The ACC, now a 17-team league, is now the lone major conference still playing only eight league games. All of the Group of Five conferences play eight conference games.
On Thursday, the College Football Playoff Selection Commitee announced a couple of tweaks to their data and procedures for the upcoming season.
Most noteworthy is a change to their strength of schedule metric. Now, a greater weight will be given to games against strong opponents. “Strong opponent" is not defined and strength of schedule data is not publicly available.
The committee is also introducing a new metric called “record strength," which is a measure of not just a team’s strength of schedule, but how that team performed against that schedule. The committee’s release said, " This metric rewards teams defeating high-quality opponents while minimizing the penalty for losing to such a team." The opposite is also true. Teams will not be rewarded as well for beating a poorer team and penalized more for losing to one.
The other tweak was to the recusal policy for committee members with a a relationship with FBS schools. Recusal was divided into two categories: Full and partial. Full recusal is for members who have a primary relationship to a school either by being employed or having a family member employed in a position that is directly connected to the football program.
Partial recusals are for members with secondary relationships with the school. For example, a job there, but not one connected to the football program.
Members with either type of recusal cannot participate on votes involving that school, however members with partial recusals can participate in discussions about the school.
The first weekly College Football Playoff rankings of the 2025 season will be release at 8 p.m. on Tuesday, Nov. 4th.
My first bowl projections for the 2025 season are up. There are a few changes to note first.
The still 12-team College Football Playoff field will be bracketed strictly by rankings beginning this season, replacing the format that awarded the four highest ranked conference champions byes into the quarterfinals. The five highest ranked conference champions will still automatically qualify for the CFP, but will be seeded where they are ranked relative to the other participants.
On to the CFP projections. Georgia starts out as the projected top seed and SEC champion. The Bulldogs are loaded again, although they will have a new starting quarterback following the departure of Carson Beck to Miami. Gunner Stockton takes over after starting the quarterfinal loss to Notre Dame in last season’s CFP quarterfinal. He was filling in for an injured Beck, who was hurt late in the SEC Championship Game. Georgia has a favorable schedule also, with just three road games, the toughest of which may be the rivalry game with Georgia Tech. Their fourth away from home game is the annual battle with Florida in Jacksonville.
2024 Runner-up Notre Dame is projected to the second seed. That was not possible before the new bracketing rules this season because as an independent, the Irish could not be a conference champion and qualify for a bye.
The problem for Notre Dame is that its status as a potential top four seed could largely hinge on its first game, which is at Miami. The Irish will likely start redshirt freshman QB CJ Carr in that game and it is a tough first assignment for Carr at the helm. If Notre Dame can win that one, and the Irish are 2.5 point favorites as I write this, the path to 12-0 gets a lot smoother. The rest of their better opponents have to travel to South Bend.
The next two teams are from the Big Ten. Penn State is the projected 3-seed and reigning national champion Ohio State is fourth. The Nittany Lions are also projected as the conference champion, avenging a loss to Ohio State in the regular season to do so. Penn State returns all of its stars on offense except all-American TE Tyler Warren, but he will not be easily replaced. QB Drew Allar is back and still has Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton at RB, each of which is coming off 1,000 yard seasons. The Nittany Lions lose all-American DE Abdul Carter to the NFL, but they will still be one of the best in the league on that side of the ball.
Talent will not be a problem at Ohio State, as usual. The Buckeyes will have a different quarterback, with 5-star recruit Julian Sayin and Lincoln Kienholz battling for the starting job. Ohio State will be good either way. WR Jeremiah Smith is coming off a record-setting season and is a preseason all-American. The Buckeyes’ defense will have a lot of new, but talented faces. Safety Caleb Downs anchors this defense and is another preseason all-American.
For the rest of the bracket and projections for the non-CFP bowls, see the bowl projections page.
I do want to take a moment to address the Longhorn not in the room. I have preseason No. 1 Texas projected as the seventh seed.
The reason for this is simple. The Longhorns' schedule has them as a likely underdog twice, so I am projecting those games to be losses. That is not the kind of thing people voting in preseason polls consider, nor should they. Those are about what voters think about the quality of the teams, not how many games they will win. However, bowl projections have to be based on expected end-of-season records.
The current line on the Longhorns' opener at Ohio State has them as a 2.5-point underdog. I also expect them to be an underdog at Georgia on Nov. 15. A 10-2 record is unlikely to crack the top four. A lot can happen between now and then.
If Texas does end up missing out on a bye, it could be a blessing in disguise. Last season, all four top seeds lost in the quarterfinals. Only Arizona State came close, losing 39-31 in double overimte to Texas. That was the only single-digit scoring margin of the quarterfinals.
One year is not a trend, of course. Two of the teams that had byes were facing higher-ranked teams. That won't happen this seaosn. Still, I have to wonder if the bye isn't a great advantage. This isn’t like the NFL, where teams with a bye get an extra week off. Teams that get byes in the CFP will get at least 25(!) days off. That’s three and a half weeks, which includes the holidays. It is hard to maintain your focus and sharpness without actual competition for that long. There is such a thing as too much rest.
Bowl Notes
That leaves us with 34 bowls outside of the College Football Playoff, which will require 68 of the 121 remaining postseason-eligible teams to fill them. It's 35 bowls and 70 teams if the Bahamas bowl gets scheduled.