College Football coverage by Jerry Palm.
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This week, they failed to do so in historically disastrous fashion. Following up last week’s overtime loss to Oregon, No. 7 Penn State lost 42-34 at previously winless UCLA. As you may know by now, that was the first time since 1985 that a top ten team lost to a team with a 0-4 record or worse. It has only happened four times before yesterday, most recently by UTEP, which was 0-6 when it beat No.7 BYU 23-16. It was the Miners only win of the season.
Others:
1958 Tulane (0-4) beat No. 6 Navy 14-6 at the Oyster Bowl in Norfolk, VA. This is the only game on this list not won by the home team.
1953 Purdue (0-4) beat No. 2 Michigan State 6-0. The “Spoilermakers” have the most wins as an unranked team over top 5 opponents with 17.
1941 Pitt (0-5) beat No. 3 Fordham 13-0. Fordham went on to win the Sugar Bowl over No. 7 Missouri 2-0.
Penn State dropped all the way out of the AP Poll this week. They also fell out of the CFP projections.
The Nittany Lions are also a common opponent of the three Big Ten teams in this week’s CFP projection: Oregon, Indiana and Ohio State, so Penn State's loss affects them too. The strength of schedule impact isn’t too bad by itself, but Penn State is not viewed as a high quality opponent any more, which would impact how the committee views those games. The Nittany Lions play Ohio State and Indiana on back-to-back weeks to start November.
Also dropping out of the CFP projections is Texas, a 29-21 loser at Florida . The Gators sacked Longhorns’ QB Arch Manning six times and picked him off twice. Florida also got a big boost from the debut of freshman WR Dallas Wilson, who caught 6 passes for 111 yards and two touchdowns.
Texas also dropped out of the AP poll this week.
Miami took a big step forward in the ACC race with a 28-22 win at Florida State. The Hurricanes led 28-3 going into the fourth quarter, but held off a furious rally by the Seminoles. Ultimately, it was too little, too late.
The Hurricanes have moved up to the No. 3 seed in the CFP projections.
There are five teams still undefeated in conference play in the ACC and they hardly play each other going down the stretch. Duke will host both Georgia Tech and Virginia and Miami plays at SMU. That’s it.
Alabama handed Vanderbilt its first loss of the season 30-14, avenging last season’s defeat at Vandy. Ty Simpson had 340 yards passing and two touchdowns to lead the Crimson Tide. Diego Pavia, who led the Commodores to last season’s win, only threw for 183 yards and had two turnovers.
The other team that dropped out of this week’s CFP projection was Iowa State. The Cyclones lost 38-30 at Cincinnati. The Bearcats remain among the four teams undefeated in Big 12 play so far, joining Arizona State, BYU and Texas Tech. Despite the win, Cincinnati remains the only unranked team among that group.
The three new teams to the CFP projections this week are Georgia Tech, Texas Tech and Ole Miss. The Red Raiders were the only one of the three to play this week. They won at Houston35-11.
We don't have quite the drama built into this weekend as we had last weekend. That doesn't mean it will be quiet.
There is a battle for supremacy in the ACC and this is the week we find out just how good Vanderbilt is.
Hopefully, between now and next week's preview, we won't have a coaching change to report.
They are back at home now and it's Miami hitting the road for the first time this season. The Hurricanes have been largely dominant except for the game against the only other team they have played that is currently ranked, Notre Dame.
Besides the rivalry and potential position in the ACC race, this game is also important as a possible quality win. Neither team currently has an opponent left on their schedules that is ranked in this week's AP poll.
I like this game to go down to the wire, maybe even overtime. Pick: Florida State +4.5
However, Vandy has yet to beat anyone noteworthy this season. Alabama may or may not be the dominant force in college football that we have seen in the recent past, but the Tide is always noteworthy. They were good enough to go into Athens and beat Georgia last week, and that is noteworthy too.
There is no chance Alabama will not be ready for this game and it will come out looking to make a statement. We'll see if they can, but I expect a reasonably comfortable win either way. Pick: Alabama -10.5
Perhaps the Bulldogs could be that team. I'm not convinced they are, and that is especially true if the Aggies play with more discipline. For Mississippi State to succeed and make a game of this, they will need good run/pass balance, like they have all season. It can't be all on the arm of QB Blake Shapen. I think MSU hangs around, but Texas A&M gets the win. Pick: Mississippi State +16.5
The Gators' defense has done well against a difficult schedule that is only going to get worse. And all the pressure is on them because the Florida offense is the sixth lowest scoring offense in FBS.
With defenses this good and at best hit-and-miss offenses, I like the under, even at this number. Pick: Under 42.5
Iowa State hangs its hat on defense and it has to because its offense is not exactly prolific, despite a 39-point outburst against Arizona last week.
While I think Iowa State will come out with the win, I like the under better. Pick: Under 55.5
I assume Washington is favored because the Huskies showed well against Ohio State last week, but is one of those long road trips that the former Pac-12 teams have to deal with in the new world. Washington has yet to win one of those games and I don't think this will be the first. Pick: Maryland +6.5, +210
If you like chaos, that was a fun weekend!
Three of top 4 seeds from my previous bowl projections lost. Penn State and Georgia lost at home.
Historically speaking, neither of those losses should come as a big surprise.
Georgia has not defeated Alabama in an SEC game – regular season or conference championship – since 2007. Ten games total now after last night’s 24-21 win by the Crimson Tide.
Georgia’s only win in that stretch was a big one – the 2021 National Championship game.
Meanwhile, as he is no doubt sick of hearing about, Penn State coach James Franklin again failed to beat a top 10 opponent. Oregon needed overtime, but the Ducks came away with a 30-24 double overtime victory dropping Franklin’s record at Penn State vs. top10 opposition to 4-21.
Neither Georgia nor Penn State fell out of the playoff projections entirely, of course. It’s just one loss and not a very bad one. However, neither team is projected to get a bye.
The two winners are though. Oregon moved all the way up to the No. 2 seed in this week’s projection, right behind new No. 1 Ohio State. The Buckeyes beat Washington 24-6 in their first road game of the season.
Alabama is now fourth overall behind No.3 Florida State. Yes, I know. The Seminoles lost 46-38 in double OT at Virginia and that could end up as a pretty crappy loss. At the moment, the Cavaliers are 4-1 overall and they miss Georgia Tech and Miami in the regular season. They are at Louisville next week.
Florida State gets a chance to get back on track this week at home when the face Miami. The winner of this game will likely be in the ACC title game. Beat the Hurricanes and Florida State is back in the driver’s seat. Lose, and any shot at the CFP is probably gone.
LSU’s problems offensively continued in a 24-19 loss at Ole Miss. The Tigers are trying to win with defense. That’s a tough ask in these times. LSU has only scored more than 20 points once this season and the Rebels became the first team to score more than 10 against the Tigers.
It may be a tough path to the CFP, but you gotta do what works for you. This might be a good team to be the under on this season.
Note: Yes, I know LSU played SE Louisiana this season and score 56 points in that game. Nothing a team does in a game against FCS teams is meaningful unless it loses the game or a key player to an injury.
Indiana is the only new team in the CFP projection this week. The Hoosiers won a typical rock fight at Iowa 20-15. Indiana still has games at Oregon and Penn State ahead, so if they make the CFP this year, people won’t be able to complain too much about their schedule.
Sunday night came the news that coach Sam Pittman is out at Arkansas. That feels like it has been coming for some time. A familiar name has taken over – Former Razorbacks coach Bobby Petrino will serve as the interim coach for the rest of the season.
Before we get into a loaded weekend slate of games, Mike Gundy became the third coach to lose his job in the first few weeks of this season. Gundy had been at Oklahoma State since 2005. He finished 4-7 that first year, but had eighteen consecutive winning seasons after that, which included one conference title. The Cowboys broke that streak last season, finishing just 3-9 and last in the Big 12. This season was not off to a promising start with a 66-point loss at Oregon and a 7-point defeat at home to Tulsa.
Offensive coordinator Doug Meachem will serve as the interim coach. The Cowboys host Baylor on Saturday.
Meanwhile, down the road a piece in Norman, Oklahoma QB John Mateer had surgery on his throwing hand to repair a broken bone suffered in last week’s win over Auburn. It is unknown how long he will be out, but he is expected back sometime this season. Mateer was off to a great start and was considered one of the early front runners in the Heisman race.
Michael Hawkins, Jr. will take over as the starter in Mateer’s absence. Hawkins, Jr. started four games last season. Fortunately for the Sooners, they are off this week, Giving Hawkins, Jr. some extra time to work with the first team before taking over. Also, Oklahoma’s game after this break is Kent State, which should be a nice warmup leading into the showdown with Texas.
This weekend features one big game after another, with four ranked-on-ranked matchups.
I have been doing Upset of the Week picks for several years now, and since I’m picking a TD or more underdog to win outright, most of them miss. None have ever missed as bad as Illinois last week. I took the Illini as a 6.5 point dog at Indiana last week and they only lost by 53. I have higher hopes for this week’s choice.
But what to make of Illinois? Are they really that bad? We’ll find out this week. I expect that practice has not been much fun and they will be chomping at the bit to take the field. Their season may be on the line.
USC might just be happy to come back to the Midwest and have a game that starts on time after a four hour delay at Purdue a couple weeks ago. The Trojans have a balanced attack, but not overly explosive. They do have two defensive scores this season, so they have been opportunistic on defense.
I think USC picked a bad time to play Illinois, but it may not matter in the end. Pick: Illinois +6.5
So, the defense is going to have to carry LSU until the offense figures things out. That will be a bigger challenge this week at Ole Miss, which is currently averaging 44.8 ppg on offense.
Jaxson Dart is gone, off to save the Giants, and Trinidad Chambliss has started the last two games at QB and is a true dual-threat weapon. He has 719 yards and four TDs through the air and 195 yards and 2 more TDs rushing.
LSU may have to get creative offensively. You know Lane Kiffin will. Pick: Ole Miss -1.5
Senior QB Drew Allar is efficient, if not spectacular, but this offense is at its best when running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen are having their way. The pair has rushed for 452 yards and eight touchdowns in the first three games.
The Ducks also have an explosive offense, as they often do. QB Dillon Gabriel hit on a whopping 73% of his passes last season before moving on to the NFL. This year’s signal caller Dante Moore has completed 74.7% of his passes so far this season.
When the Ducks get into the Red Zone, watch out for freshman RB Jordon Davison, who already has six touchdowns this season on just 19 carries. This game is big for both teams, but maybe more for Penn State. The Ducks will likely be favored the rest of the way, but the Nittany Lions have a trip to Ohio State ahead of them. They may not be able to afford a home loss here. Pick: Penn State -3.5
Gunnar Stockton has been impressive taking over for Carson Beck, who transferred to Miami. Stockton has completed 71% of his passes and led the Bulldogs to a 44-41 win at Tennessee last time out. This is another one of those teams I rarely pick against at home, but especially this time since Alabama doesn’t quite look like ALABAMA. Pick: Georgia -3
But also….
Auburn comes in off a loss at Oklahoma in their first conference game of the season. The Tigers defense has been relatively good so far, but the Aggies are the best offensive team they have seen.Pick: Texas A&M -6.5
No. 15 Tennessee at Mississippi State, (+7.5, O/U 62.5), Saturday, 4:15 p.m. ET, SECN This should be fun, especially if you like cowbell. Otherwise, mute the TV. The Volunteers worst offensive performance of the season so far came in a 41-point performance against Georgia. The Bulldogs have not been quite so proficient on offense, but they have been good defensively, most notably holding Arizona State to 20 in their win over the Sun Devils. If this is a relatively low scoring game, I like Mississippi State’s chances, but I think the Vols offense will end up being too good to lose. Picks: Mississippi State +7.5, Over 62.5
There is one change from last week’s College Football Playoff projections. Texas Tech is now projected as the 9-seed after the Red Raiders’ dominant 34-10 win at Utah. They replace Illinois, which was obliterated, to put it kindly, 63-10 at Indiana.
Also, the preseason projected ACC champion Clemson has now fallen completely out of the bowl projections following a 34-21 loss at home to Syracuse. That is the Tigers worst loss of the season in every measure. Clemson has next week off and that could not come at a better time.
North Carolina lost at 34-9 at UCF and look like they still have a ways to go before they are competitive. The Tar Heels also have a week off before hosting Clemson.
Notre Dame finally picked up a win. The Fighting Irish beat Purdue 56-30 in a game that featured an almost 2-hour lightning delay with 1:31 to go in the first half. The Boilermakers’ home game with USC last week was delayed by almost four-hours due to storms.
Notre Dame is now 1-2 with a trip to Arkansas next week.
Speaking of the Razorbacks, they led at Memphis by 18-points at halftime, but couldn’t hold on at the Tigers rallied for a 32-31 win. After the Tigers took the lead with under 5:00 to go, Arkansas got down inside the Memphis 10-yard line, but fumbled the ball away and the chance to win with it.
That is the second win by an American Conference team over an SEC foe, following South Florida’s win at Florida. Those two teams look like the best contenders for a spot in the CFP among the Group of Five conferences.
Joining the coaching hot seat this week, if he wasn’t already on it, is long time Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy following a 19-12 loss at home to Tulsa. Gundy has been the Cowboys skipper since 2005, but is coming off a 3-9 season in which OSU was winless in Big 12 play. It looks like a 3-9 record this season will require a couple of upsets.
Wisconsin coach Luke Fickell’s seat has been pretty warm for a while, but it can’t help when the stadium starts chanting “Fire Luke Fickell!" during the game. The Badgers turned in a lackluster performance in a 27-10 loss to Maryland.
Next week has some juicy matchups, including Oregon heading to Penn State and Alabama at Georgia.
This is the last week of a schedule mostly filled with non-conference games. Despite that, we have a few conference games of note this week. Also, could we see yet another coach get fired? Let’s start with an in-state rivalry.
I feel like I am featuring Miami in this space every week and with good reason. The Hurricanes are off to a great start with wins over South Florida and Notre Dame already. Miami was dominant against the Bulls last week after USF had already beaten Boise State and won at Florida. The Canes have the look of a team that could not just make the College Football Playoff, but win it.
Meanwhile, the Gators are still looking for the first win against an FBS opponent after last week’s loss at No. 3 LSU. Florida has a very unforgiving schedule where they may have to pull an upset or two just to make a bowl game. This is the second of four consecutive opponents ranked in the current AP top 10. The Gators also have games against four currently ranked teams in November and two of those are top 10.
Yikes. Florida coach Billy Napier has been feeling the heat almost since he walked in the door in 2022. He is currently 20-21 in 3+ seasons. If things don’t turn around soon, he may not get to finish this season.
Miami should be able to come away with a comfortable, if not overwhelming win. Pick: Miami -9.5
Notre Dame is now 0-2 with both losses coming to ranked opponents by a total of four points. The Fighting Irish are the first 0-2 team to be ranked in the AP poll since Michigan was 19th in 1988. That was the last season that the poll only ranked 20 teams.
So it would seem that Purdue picked a bad time to play the Irish. The Boilers are better this season than last, but there was nowhere to go but up.
Purdue has a history of being Spoilermakers, but it seems pretty unlikely this week. Look for Notre Dame to take out some frustrations on the Boilers. Pick: Notre Dame -25.5
The Big 12 race could be a lot of fun. These teams are two of about half a dozen that have a realistic shot at winning the league.
Texas Tech is averaging 58 ppg to lead FBS, while the Utes are 14th despite having aleady played two road games. This is the first for the Red Raiders. The reality though is that neither team has been truly tested. That changes this week. I’m leaning toward Utah winning at home, but I like the over better. Pick (Over 56.5).
Every week, I will pick one team that is at least a 6-point underdog to win outright. This week, that team is ninth-ranked Illinois.
The Fighting Illini travel to Indiana to take on the 19th ranked Hoosiers, which have proudly played a lousy schedule so far.
I say “proudly" because when IU coach Curt Cignetti was questioned about canceling a series with Virginia, a power conference program, but not an especially good one at the moment, he ripped into the SEC for playing poor non-conference schedules and said he would “adopt (the) SEC scheduling philosophy".
Look, I don’t care who teams schedule outside their leagues. Each coach is doing what he thinks is best for his team. The CFP selection committee cares about SOS, so someday, that may come back to bite Indiana or some other team that does not test itself enough to impress the committee. We’ll see.
However, the comparison to the SEC is not entirely fair, especially for the better teams in that conference, which usually try to schedule at least one good game. Some of those are in-state rivals. This season, we have seen Texas at Ohio State, LSU at Clemson, Alabama at Florida State, Oklahoma vs. Michigan and Texas A&M at Notre Dame. Florida will play both Miami and Florida State. Georgia will play Georgia Tech later in the season. That is six good games by just the higher ranked teams in the SEC.
But, I digress. I like the Illini defense stifle the Hoosiers enough to let Illinois escape with the win. Pick: Illinois +6.5, +200 ML
A couple of heavy favorites to appear in the College Football Playoff lost on Saturday and have already been eliminated from at least at-large consideration.
That is a bigger problem for c, which, as an independent, has no other path to the CFP. Texas A&M scored on an 11-yard touchdown pass from Marcel Reed to to TE Nate Boerkircher with 13 seconds left to stun the Irish 24-21. Notre Dame fell to 0-2 and has likely already played their two best opponents. The Irish do not appear to have a strong enough schedule to get into the CFP at 10-2.
Purdue is better than it was last season – impossible not to be – but will likely be a welcome sight for the Irish next Saturday as they try to get off the schneid.
Clemson was the favorite in the ACC heading into the season, but they are now 1-2 overall and 0-1 in the conference following a 24-21 loss at Georgia Tech on a 55-yard field goal by Aiden Birr as time expired.
Clemson still has to play Florida State, so the path to the ACC title game will not be easy. The Tigers have no longer have a realistic path to an at-large bid.
With the losses, Clemson and Notre Dame dropped out of the CFP projection. They were replaced by Texas A&M and Illinois. The Illini are off to a 3-0 start, although none of those wins have been noteworthy. Illinois is at No. 19 Indiana on Saturday, starting a stretch of three games out of four against teams in this week’s AP rankings.
Miami gave South Florida its first loss of the season 49-12. It was another strong statement by the Hurricanes, especially after the Bulls had already defeated Boise State and Florida. Miami and Florida State, which play each other on Oct 4 in Tallahassee, and Georgia Tech, which plays neither of those two, appear to have the inside track to the ACC title game.
The game of the day, unless you like defense, was No. 5 Georgia’s 44-41 overtime win at 15th-ranked Tennessee. The teams traded punches for four quarters. The last of those punches was Gunnar Stockton’s 28-yard touchdown pass to London Humphreys, and subsequent two-point conversion, to tie the game at 38 with 2:40 to go. The Bulldogs won it in the first OT with a 1-yard touchdown run by Josh McCray.
That is Georgia’s ninth straight win over the Volunteers.
Florida fell at LSU for its second loss of the season. Things don’t get any easier for the Gators. They still have seven games left against teams ranked in this week’s AP top 15. And you thought your team’s schedule was hard.
UCLA coach DeShaun Foster’s seat was already uncomfortably warm entering the season. Losing 35-10 at home to 15.5-point underdog New Mexico on Friday was the final straw. Foster was fired on Sunday after the team's 0-3 start. Foster was 5-10 overall three games into his second season with the Bruins.
Special assistant Tim Skipper will serve as the interim coach. This is the second straight season Skipper has had that role. He was the interim coach at Fresno State last season.
UCLA gets a much needed week off before starting Big Ten play at Northwestern.
Virginia Tech also made a coaching move on Sunday. The Hokies fired head coach Brent Pry after a 45-26 loss at home to Old Dominion. Pry was in his fourth season with Virginia Tech and finished with a 16-24 record and two bowl appearances. Offensive Coordinator Phil Montgomery will serve as the interim coach.
Finally, the Arch Manning Watch – if that is still a thing – was again unwatchable this week, or at least for one quarter. The Texas freshman QB was 11-25 for 114 yards with one touchdown and one interception in a rather pedestrian 24-10 win over UTEP. He also had two rushing touchdowns. In the second quarter, Manning threw ten consecutive incompletions and an interception in the end zone to end the half.
After a relatively quiet week 2, we have a handful of potentially impactful games this weekend. Leading off, can South Florida do it again?
USF has already done its job in terms of putting itself at the front of the line for an AQ spot in the College Football Playoff. Wins over Boise State and at Florida to start the season all but guarantee the Bulls a place, provided they win the American Conference title.
That does not mean this game is unimportant. It’s still against a major conference in-state rival.
When we last saw Miami – and I am assuming most of us did not see them last week – the Hurricanes jumped out to a 21-7 lead on Notre Dame and held on for a 27-24 win. They limited the Irish to just 93 yards rushing after Notre Dame was one of the best running teams in the nation last season.
South Florida QB Byrum Brown can beat you with his arm and his legs. He has completed 65% of his passes and is averaging 3.5 yards per carry on the ground. The Bulls’ defense has been terrific so far, allowing only 25 points in two games and forcing four turnovers.
Miami should be able to come away with the win, but it won’t come easily and it won’t be a shootout. Picks: USF+17.5, Under 56.5
What do we know so far about these two teams? Basically, nothing. Georgia is significantly better than Marshall and Tennessee is well past Syracuse. So, this is the first time either team will face a team that can test them.
The Volunteers are looking for their first conference title since 1998. Georgia has five since then, including two of the last three. The Bulldogs are still the top dog until proven otherwise. Pick: Under 50.5
The Irish had a week off to lick their wounds from a physical loss at Miami to start the season. Their margin for error in terms of making the CFP is gone. It would be surprising if Notre Dame made the playoff at 10-2 regardless of which team beats the Irish for that second loss. Their schedule just isn’t strong enough.
The Aggies are arguably the second best team on Notre Dame’s schedule, after Miami. In fact, the Aggies are the last currently ranked team on their schedule.
We don’t know much more about Texas A&M than we do Georgia or Tennessee, although the Aggies have managed to avoid playing a FCS team so far.
I like the Irish to win at home, but I’m not comfortable with the spread. Pick: Under 50.5
The Tigers will need to be more like the team that showed up for the second half if they expect to win at Georgia Tech. QB Haynes King is the engine that makes the Yellow Jackets go. He ran for 156 yards and three TDs in the season opening win at Colorado. The Tigers need to slow King and the Tech running game down to come away with the win. Pick: Clemson -3
My record so far: 2-1 last week, 3-4 overall
No. 18 Oklahoma won the only game between ranked opponents, downing Fifteenth-ranked Michigan 24-13. The Sooners held Wolverines' QB Bryce Underwood to just 9-24 passing for 142 yards in his first career road game.
John Mateer, the Washington State transfer, led the Sooners by throwing for one touchdown and running for two more. He accounted for 344 of Oklahoma’s 408 total yards.
The game that had the biggest impact on the bowl projections though was South Florida's. The Bulls followed up their demolition of Boise State last week with an 18-16 win over No. 13 Florida in the Swamp.
South Florida's start to the season is too good to ignore and the Bulls are now the projected 12-seed in the College Football Playoff projection, replacing fellow American Conference member Memphis. They will face each other in Memphis on Oct. 25th.
The other change to the CFP projection this week is Florida State replacing SMU after the Mustangs lost at home to Baylor in double overtime. The Seminoles are projected as the 11-seed.
For the first time this season, my bowl projection does not have enough teams projected to finish .500 or better. I came up one team short, so Cincinnati gets the nod as the 5-7 team with the best APR rating. Last year, there wasn’t a need for a sub-.500 team until Marshall dropped out after the bowls were announced. They were replaced by Louisiana Tech, which was 5-7.
Sooners QB Josh Mateer, a transfer from Washington State, set a school record for most passing yards in his Oklahoma debut with 390 in a 35-3 victory over FCS Illinois State. So, we still don’t know very much about the Sooners. We will after this week.
If Underwood can avoid the big mistakes in his first road game, the Wolverines have a chance to win. Regardless, this should be a tight battle. Pick (Michigan +5.5)
Florida took it easy last week, pounding Long Island 55-0. The Gators can expect to have to work harder to beat the Bulls, and they likely will, but I think it will be a low scoring affair. (Pick under 56.5)
WHAT WAS THAT??? ARCH MANNING SUCKS!!!
No, he doesn’t. He’ll be fine. Ohio State is probably going to make a lot of good offensive players look bad this season. The Buckeyes’ defense looks like it hasn’t lost anything from last season and might even be better. But let’s see how they do on the road. We may have to wait a while for their first good road test though.
Ohio State moved up one spot to No. 3 following Notre Dame’s loss at Miami.
Meanwhile, Texas should be able to get their legs back under them and take out some frustrations throughout the rest of this month before heading to Florida to start an October that has no home games. The Longhorns still have a trip to Georgia ahead of them as well, but write them off at your peril.
Texas is unaffected by their own result in this week’s bowl projections in part because it was expected, although there was some shuffling around them.
The margin for error is about gone for the Irish. Notre Dame figures to be favored, probably comfortably so, the rest of the way. The best teams left on their schedule, USC and their next opponent, Texas A&M, have to play in South Bend.
LSU moved into the CFP projections off a win at Clemson, debuting at No. 4 this week. LSU had the only noteworthy road win of the weekend among potential CFP contenders. Clemson is still the projected ACC champion, but falls to No. 7 in the seedings.
Miami looks like a contender after a 27-24 win over Notre Dame. They are projected as the 11-seed, which is the final at-large spot. The Irish are 9th, with SMU between them. The Mustangs host the Hurricanes on Nov. 1, which may have a lot on the line for both teams.
Boise State’s time in the CFP projections was short lived following a 34-7 loss at South Florida. The Broncos only path to the CFP now involves winning the Mountain West, of course, and hoping for the best in the other Group of Five conferences. Or beat Notre Dame.
Memphis is the new Group of Five representative in this week’s projection, but the title race in the American could be pretty open as well. Tulane was impressive in dismantling Northwestern.
Outside the CFP, TCU gave Bill Belichick a hostile welcome to College Football. The Horned Frogs blasted North Carolina 48-14 in front of a sellout crowd that started leaving at halftime. The Tar Heels’ offense gave up as many touchdowns as it scored. Carolina has a relatively soft conference schedule, so bowl eligibility shouldn’t be an issue, but there is a lot of work to be done. Meanwhile, count the Horned Frogs among the lengthy list of contenders in the Big 12.
I have projected one more eligible team than I have spots in bowl games. That team is Southern Miss. However, the Bahamas Bowl has yet to be rescheduled, which is still expected.
USF knocked off No. 25 Boise State 34-7 on Thursday to put a big dent in the Broncos’ chances to go back to the College Football Playoff. They have to win the Mountain West to have a chance to qualify and this game doesn’t impact that, but now they have to win out to finish 12-1. That means winning at Notre Dame on Oct. 4. 11-2 is unlikely to be good enough to get to the CFP.
That is a nice appetizer for the rest of the weekend. Here is a look at some other games of note, starting with will likely be one of the biggest games of the season.
Most of the talk will be about the two quarterbacks, the much ballyhooed Arch Manning and former 5-start recruit Julian Sayin. We got to see a bit of Manning last season, and Sayin got some reps in the Tennessee game for the Buckeyes. As usual, the Buckeyes will have a load of talent to for Sayin to throw to, led by all-American Jeremiah Smith.
But like most games, this is likely to be won at the line of scrimmage. The team that can do the best job of keeping their QBs comfortable will likely win.
I almost never pick against OSU at home. Today is no exception. Pick: Ohio St (-1)
Thomas Castellanos, who beat Florida State last season at Boston College, is the new signal caller for the Seminoles. Alabama is coming off a season with four losses, which is a lot by their lofty standards. Coach Kalen DeBoer is already feeling some heat as he enters his second season. As always, talent is not the problem at Alabama. They will need a more dynamic offense to achieve their goals this season. The Tide’s new QB is Ty Simpson and will have one of the most explosive receivers in the country to target in Ryan Williams to throw to.
This seems like a big line, but I’m not buying Florida State until they show me something. Pick: Alabama(-14)
This game probably comes down to defense though and Clemson has one of the best in the country, led by a stout line that got better with the addition of Will Heldt from Purdue. LSU’s defense was a mess last season, but shored things up with a handful of transfers to upgrade the talent.
Still, I trust the Clemson defense more and like them to walk away with the win. Pick: Clemson (-4).
Carson Beck is the new QB for Miami after transferring from Georgia. When we last saw Beck, he mostly stood injured on the sideline and watched the Fighting Irish beat his Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinal of the CFP. He will need to do well against a tough Irish defense if Miami is to win. Notre Dame QB CJ Carr gets his first start, but the Irish will still be primarily a ground and pound offense, so not as much will be asked of him as Beck.
It probably won’t be easy, but I like Notre Dame to get the win. Pick: Under 49.5
The Big 12 race should be a fun one to follow this season. As many as six teams have the talent and schedule to make a run at the title. A race that competitive at the top could also make it difficult to get multiple teams into the College Football Playoff. This morning’s tweak of the bowl projections drops Kansas State out and puts Oklahoma in as a fourth team from the SEC. Iowa State is now projected to get into the CFP as the 7-seed and Big 12 champion.
Becht threw for 183 yards and two TDs and ran seven yards for a score with 6:38 to go to put ISU up ten.
It was a sloppy game in sloppy conditions, especially early on. The Cyclones punted on its first possession, but the Wildcats fumbled it away inside their ten-yard-line. Kansas State then extended the ISU drive with a pass interference penalty on third down, but the Cyclones couldn’t capitalize, fumbling the ball away themselves.
One other noteworthy result from Saturday was Hawaii’s 23-20 win over Stanford on a last second field goal. Former Cardinal star Andrew Luck took over as Stanford football’s general manager this spring. He has a very tough job ahead of him rebuilding this program back to its glory days.
The winning field goal was kicked byHawaii’s Kansei Matsuzawa, who taught himself how to kick watching videos on YouTube.
The SEC announced on Thursday that it will move to nine conference games starting with the 2026 season.
It is a move that needed to happen. With a league of this size, you should play as many conference games as reasonably possible to make the regular season conference title race as fair as possible. It is not ever going to be completely fair in a league this size, but every little bit helps.
This may be the end of what I have called SEC Sabbatical Saturday. That is the Saturday before Thanksgiving, when several SEC teams play non-conference games against Group of Five teams or FCS teams. This season, there are six such games, three against each group.
I am not saying those games will not be played, but that they may now get played in September and that that Saturday will be primarily used for conference games.
The ACC, now a 17-team league, is now the lone major conference still playing only eight league games. All of the Group of Five conferences play eight conference games.
On Thursday, the College Football Playoff Selection Commitee announced a couple of tweaks to their data and procedures for the upcoming season.
Most noteworthy is a change to their strength of schedule metric. Now, a greater weight will be given to games against strong opponents. “Strong opponent" is not defined and strength of schedule data is not publicly available.
The committee is also introducing a new metric called “record strength," which is a measure of not just a team’s strength of schedule, but how that team performed against that schedule. The committee’s release said, " This metric rewards teams defeating high-quality opponents while minimizing the penalty for losing to such a team." The opposite is also true. Teams will not be rewarded as well for beating a poorer team and penalized more for losing to one.
The other tweak was to the recusal policy for committee members with a a relationship with FBS schools. Recusal was divided into two categories: Full and partial. Full recusal is for members who have a primary relationship to a school either by being employed or having a family member employed in a position that is directly connected to the football program.
Partial recusals are for members with secondary relationships with the school. For example, a job there, but not one connected to the football program.
Members with either type of recusal cannot participate on votes involving that school, however members with partial recusals can participate in discussions about the school.
The first weekly College Football Playoff rankings of the 2025 season will be release at 8 p.m. on Tuesday, Nov. 4th.
My first bowl projections for the 2025 season are up. There are a few changes to note first.
The still 12-team College Football Playoff field will be bracketed strictly by rankings beginning this season, replacing the format that awarded the four highest ranked conference champions byes into the quarterfinals. The five highest ranked conference champions will still automatically qualify for the CFP, but will be seeded where they are ranked relative to the other participants.
On to the CFP projections. Georgia starts out as the projected top seed and SEC champion. The Bulldogs are loaded again, although they will have a new starting quarterback following the departure of Carson Beck to Miami. Gunner Stockton takes over after starting the quarterfinal loss to Notre Dame in last season’s CFP quarterfinal. He was filling in for an injured Beck, who was hurt late in the SEC Championship Game. Georgia has a favorable schedule also, with just three road games, the toughest of which may be the rivalry game with Georgia Tech. Their fourth away from home game is the annual battle with Florida in Jacksonville.
2024 Runner-up Notre Dame is projected to the second seed. That was not possible before the new bracketing rules this season because as an independent, the Irish could not be a conference champion and qualify for a bye.
The problem for Notre Dame is that its status as a potential top four seed could largely hinge on its first game, which is at Miami. The Irish will likely start redshirt freshman QB CJ Carr in that game and it is a tough first assignment for Carr at the helm. If Notre Dame can win that one, and the Irish are 2.5 point favorites as I write this, the path to 12-0 gets a lot smoother. The rest of their better opponents have to travel to South Bend.
The next two teams are from the Big Ten. Penn State is the projected 3-seed and reigning national champion Ohio State is fourth. The Nittany Lions are also projected as the conference champion, avenging a loss to Ohio State in the regular season to do so. Penn State returns all of its stars on offense except all-American TE Tyler Warren, but he will not be easily replaced. QB Drew Allar is back and still has Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton at RB, each of which is coming off 1,000 yard seasons. The Nittany Lions lose all-American DE Abdul Carter to the NFL, but they will still be one of the best in the league on that side of the ball.
Talent will not be a problem at Ohio State, as usual. The Buckeyes will have a different quarterback, with 5-star recruit Julian Sayin and Lincoln Kienholz battling for the starting job. Ohio State will be good either way. WR Jeremiah Smith is coming off a record-setting season and is a preseason all-American. The Buckeyes’ defense will have a lot of new, but talented faces. Safety Caleb Downs anchors this defense and is another preseason all-American.
For the rest of the bracket and projections for the non-CFP bowls, see the bowl projections page.
I do want to take a moment to address the Longhorn not in the room. I have preseason No. 1 Texas projected as the seventh seed.
The reason for this is simple. The Longhorns' schedule has them as a likely underdog twice, so I am projecting those games to be losses. That is not the kind of thing people voting in preseason polls consider, nor should they. Those are about what voters think about the quality of the teams, not how many games they will win. However, bowl projections have to be based on expected end-of-season records.
The current line on the Longhorns' opener at Ohio State has them as a 2.5-point underdog. I also expect them to be an underdog at Georgia on Nov. 15. A 10-2 record is unlikely to crack the top four. A lot can happen between now and then.
If Texas does end up missing out on a bye, it could be a blessing in disguise. Last season, all four top seeds lost in the quarterfinals. Only Arizona State came close, losing 39-31 in double overimte to Texas. That was the only single-digit scoring margin of the quarterfinals.
One year is not a trend, of course. Two of the teams that had byes were facing higher-ranked teams. That won't happen this seaosn. Still, I have to wonder if the bye isn't a great advantage. This isn’t like the NFL, where teams with a bye get an extra week off. Teams that get byes in the CFP will get at least 25(!) days off. That’s three and a half weeks, which includes the holidays. It is hard to maintain your focus and sharpness without actual competition for that long. There is such a thing as too much rest.
Bowl Notes
That leaves us with 34 bowls outside of the College Football Playoff, which will require 68 of the 121 remaining postseason-eligible teams to fill them. It's 35 bowls and 70 teams if the Bahamas bowl gets scheduled.