Projected CFP Top 25

December 6

The championship games are in the books. There is no more looking ahead to what might happen. Here is how I expect the rankings to look when they are announced at Noon ET on Sunday.

RankPrevTeamW-Lvs T25Last WeekNext:
12Indiana13-03-0W 13-10 vs 1 Ohio StCFP
Indiana went toe-to-toe with the bully of the Big Ten and came out on top. It's the Hoosiers first Big Ten title since 1967.
21Ohio State12-12-1L 13-10 to 2 Indiana CFP
Ohio State made too many mistakes to win a game of this caliber.
33Georgia12-14-1W 28-7 vs 9 AlabamaCFP
The Bulldogs controlled the game from start to finish, making up for the loss at home to the Crimson Tide earlier this season.
44Texas Tech12-14-0W 34-7 vs 11 BYUSat vs 11
Texas Tech put the Cougars out of their misery early in the second half. The Red Raiders scored five more points than their previous meeting with BYU. They should get the final bye.
55Oregon11-12-1DNPCFP
66Ole Miss11-12-1DNPCFP
77Texas A&M11-11-1DNPCFP
88Oklahoma10-22-2DNPCFP
910Notre Dame10-21-2DNPCFP?
Unless the committee suddenly decides to put some value on the head to head result with Miami, the Irish are headed for the CFP.
109Alabama10-32-2L 28-7 to 3 GeorgiaCFP?
I believe Alabama will be the last team in. The committee is typically pretty forgiving to lower ranked teams that lose their conference championship games.
1112Miami10-21-0DNPCFP?
Only once before has the committee switched the relative position of two teams in the rankings that did not play on championship weekend. That was in 2014, the first year of the CFP, when they switched 6 Baylor ahead of 3 TCU after the two teams that had been between them won their conference championship games. The Big 12 didn't have one back then, so Baylor and TCU were off. Florida State and Ohio State, the previous Nos. 4 and 5, jumped ahead of TCU and the committee moved Baylor past them as well, leaving Baylor at 5 and TCU 6th. The new ranking then aligned with the head to head result, which was a Baylor 61-58 win. As a result, neither team made what was then a four-team playoff, so it was a Pyrrhic victory for Baylor.

I am not predicting that Miami will get by Notre Dame, but it wouldn't be unprecedented.

1211BYU11-22-2L 34-7 vs 4 Texas TechBowl
1313Texas9-33-2Bowl
1414Vanderbilt10-20-2Bowl
1515Utah10-20-2Bowl
1616USC9-32-2Bowl
1718Arizona9-30-2Bowl
1819Michigan9-30-3Bowl
1920Tulane11-21-1W 31-21 vs 24 North TexasCFP
Tulane is headed to the CFP and should be seeded 11th.
2017Virginia10-30-0L 26-20, OT to DukeBowl
2121Houston9-31-1Bowl
2222Georgia Tech9-30-1DNPBowl
2323 Iowa 8-40-3DNPBowl
2425 James Madison 12-10-0W 31-14 vs TroyCFP?
It's hard to imagine Duke jumping all the way up to here from way off the grid. The Dukes' inclusion would be historic as a second Group of Five team.
2524 North Texas 11-20-1L 31-21 at 20 TulaneBowl