Projected CFP Top 25

November 18

It will be interesting to see how far Alabama falls after the Crimson Tide's 23-21 loss to Oklahoma. Surely behind at least the Sooners, which will get some juice to move up as well.

Alabama still has a good path to the SEC title game if the Crimson Tide wins out. They have a head to head win with Georgia if there is a tie between just the two of them. If Ole Miss is also involved, it could come down to strength of conference schedule, which also likely favors Alabama.

Five of the bottom six teams in last week's rankings lost last weekend. Tennessee was the only winner, in large part because they played New Mexico State. It would be surprise if all five of those teams fell out of the rankings.

South Florida celebrated its entrance into last week's rankings with a loss at Navy. The Midshipmen are my guess as the team the committee will jinx favor this week. I have Navy projected 25th.

Many people like James Madison, but they are basically North Texas without a win over a team as good as Navy, so I still think this week's preferred Group of Five team will come from the American Conference.

Without further ado, here is this week's projected CFP Top 25.

RankPrevTeamW-Lvs. T25Next:
11Ohio State10-01-0Sat vs. Rutgers
The Buckeyes have won their seven conference games by an average of just under 28 ppg. This week probably will not hurt that much.
22Indiana11-02-0Nov 28 at Purdue
Indiana had an easy time with Wisconsin and now they get an extra week to prepare for Purdue. That seems like overkill.
33Texas A&M10-01-0Sat vs. Samford
Texas A&M needed a massive comeback in the second half to beat South Carolina. It's a good week for their SEC sabbatical game.
45Georgia9-13-1Sat vs. Charlotte
Georgia will be the highest ranked one-loss SEC team this week, but may need to win a three-way tiebreaker with Alabama and Ole Miss to get to play in the SEC title game. That, or hope Auburn beats Alabama.
56Texas Tech10-12-0Nov. 29 at West Virginia
Texas Tech gets a week off to prepare for the home stretch. A top four seed in the CFP is a possibility.
67Ole Miss10-11-1Nov. 28 at Mississippi State
Even with a win next week, the Rebels are an unlikely SEC Championship game participant. They will get a good CFP seed though.
711Oklahoma8-23-2Sat vs. Missouri
Big win for Oklahoma on Saturday puts them in a fine position for a CFP berth. The Sooners need to take car of business at home.
84Alabama8-23-1Sat vs. Eastern Illinois
Oklahoma took down the Tide for the second straight season, leaving Alabama unlikely to get a bye short of winning the conference. Maybe not even then. Of course, one more loss would not only be a significant upset, but likely fatal to the Tide's playoff hopes
98Oregon9-11-1Sat vs. 17 USC
The Ducks have one more chance for a win against a ranked opponent when they take on the Trojans this week.
109Notre Dame8-22-2Sat at 24 Pitt
I thought the Irish were done with ranked opponents, but lo and behold, the Panthers cracked last week's top 25. This is Notre Dame's last chance to impress. Their final two opponents have fewer combined wins than Pitt has by itself.
1112BYU9-11-1Sat at 25 Cincinnati
It will be interesting to see how far BYU drops after last week's loss. The score not being competitive could push them down a little further.
1213Utah8-21-2Sat vs. Kansas State
Utah is still alive for a spot in the CFP, but their remaining schedule won't help much.
1310Texas7-32-2Sat vs. Arkansas
The Longhorns loss at Georgia just about ends their playoff aspirations. Texas still gets to play Texas A&M, which could give the Longhorns an outside shot of crawling onto the bracket.
1414Vanderbilt8-20-2Sat vs. Kentucky
it's not over until it's over, but the Commodores are done playing teams that can give them enough juice to jump teams ahead of them.
1515Miami8-22-1Sat at Virginia Tech
Miami is trying to chase Notre Dame down from behind. They are not close enough to the Irish in the mind of the committee for head-to-head to matter.
1617USC8-22-1Sat at 8 Oregon
Last chance for the Trojans to impress the committee. A win at Autzen would certainly do that.
1716Georgia Tech9-10-0Sat vs. 22 Pittsburgh
Georgia Tech is not a viable at-large candidate because of its schedule, but the Yellow Jackets are in a good position to get to the ACC title game and automatically qualify.
1818Michigan8-20-2Sat at Maryland
Michigan most likely can only spoil things for Ohio State. It seems unlikely they can jump to the top 10 by beating the Buckeyes. But first, Maryland.
1919Virginia9-21-0Nov. 29 vs. Virginia Tech
The ACC looks like a one-bid league and Virginia still has a chance to be that one.
2023Tennessee7-30-3Sat at Florida
The Volunteers are playing for a nice New Year's Day game. Beating Florida is also good on its own merits..
2120Louisville7-32-1Sat at SMU
The Cardinals lost two straight, both at home. In fact, all three of their losses have come at home. Just beat the teams they are supposed to at home and this is a playoff team..
22NRHouston8-20-1Sat vs. TCU
The Cougars do not have a lot of in the way of higher quality wins or a great schedule, but they did beat both Arizona schools and they were also contenders for this spot.
23NRArizona St7-31-1Sat at Colorado
The Sun Devils have played a good schedule and are the only team to beat Texas Tech. That should be enough to crack this list.
24NRIllinois7-31-2Sat at Wisconsin
Illinois has played the best schedule of teams with a good enough record to be considered for these rankings, but still excluded. The Illini lost all three games by double digits. Indiana was trying for triple digits but only got halfway there. One of these weeks, the selection committee will get past those scoring margins.
25NRNavy8-21-1Nov 27 at Memphis
The Midshipmen made a statement that it should be the in the CFP with the win over South Florida. Of course, they have to win the conference first. And survive the CFP curse, should it come.