Bubble Watch

* - Conference leader
Seed - seed in my most recent projection.

Last updated: Selection Sunday
Removed since last update: VCU
Added since last update:
Today's games in bold

School	W-L	Seed	NET	SOS	WAB	Comment
* Saint Louis	27-5	10	30	134	42	Saint Louis shared the regular season title with VCU, but only the Rams will play for the A-10 title after the Billikens fell to Dayton for a second time this season. There is a non-zero chance they get left out.
NC State	20-13	10	36	35	43	The Wolfpack gave Virginia a fight. Their WAB is at the high end of the range for an at-large team, so selection Sunday will be tense.
SMU	20-13	11	37	58	45	SMU couldn't get it done against Louisville, so the Mustangs will have a nervous selection Sunday.
Auburn	17-16	out	38	3	44	Auburn has played a great schedule, but the Tigers didn't have the team for it. No team has ever received an at-large bid that was only one game above .500 or more than three game below .500 against the top three quadrants, let alone both. Auburn is 11-16 vs Q1-3. I know its a bad bubble, but it's probably not bad enough to include the Tigers.
Santa Clara	25-8	10	40	82	36	The Broncos fell to Gonzaga for a third time on Tuesday and missed out on an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. I like their chances of hearing their name called on Sunday, but nothing is definite.
Indiana	18-14	out	41	33	52	Indiana lost six of their final seven games and there was a time when that alone would get a bubble team eliminated. In this case, it changed things enough that the Hoosiers went from in to likely out.
Texas	17-14	11	42	22	46	Like Indiana, the Longhorns tanked down the stretch, losing five out of six. Unlike the Hoosiers, it may not knock them out of the bracket entirely.
Texas A&M	21-11	10	43	61	40	The Aggies did not impress against Oklahoma in a 20-point opening round loss. They could go either way.
San Diego St	21-11	out	47	76	47	It was not a good day for San Diego State. The Aztecs lost to Utah State, leaving them in the at-large pool, and Saint Louis lost, likely guaranteeing the A-10 two teams.
UCF	21-11	9	51	41	35	Arizona handled UCF pretty good on Thursday, but the Wildcats do that to a lot of teams. WAB is doing better than the NET for them, so that helps.
Missouri	20-12	11	58	39	41	The Tigers couldn't get past Kentucky, so now it's hope for the best. WAB seems to be their friend.
* Miami-OH	28-1	11	64	339	37	Everything took a hit after losing to 8-seed UMass in the opening round of the MAC tournament. The RedHawks dropped ten spots in the NET and 6 in WAB. A resume like this is unprecedented. Other than "28-1" and WAB, it's historically bad. And WAB wasn't on team sheets until last season. All that said, I expect they'll get a chance anyway.